(New York) Oil prices chained a sixth positive session in a row on Thursday, boosted by the weakening of the dollar, itself weighed down by the publication of an American indicator which testifies to the slowdown in inflation in the United States. United.
The price of a barrel of Brent North Sea oil for March delivery gained 1.64%, to close at $84.03.
The barrel of American West Texas Intermediate (WTI), with maturity in February, rose 1.26% to 78.39 dollars. WTI reached its highest closing level since the beginning of the year on Thursday.
Already on the rise, black gold continued to rise thanks to a further erosion of the dollar, which fell to a low of more than eight months against the euro on Thursday.
The publication of the CPI price index, which came out down 0.1% over one month in December, reassured traders that inflation was on the downward slope and that the cycle of interest rate hikes the US central bank would soon come to an end.
“The weaker the dollar, the more it takes to buy a barrel of crude,” with most contracts being denominated in greenbacks, Robert Yawger of Mizuho recalled, driving up prices. “And speculators are playing big on that move right now. »
Among the factors favorable to prices on Thursday, “there was also the hope of an increase in demand in China” with the lifting of health restrictions, according to the analyst.
Robert Yawger nevertheless estimates the scope for price growth to be limited at these price levels in the coming weeks, as the global economy remains in marked decline. “The fears of recessions are still there,” he argues.
“There are concerns about demand for the first months of 2023, against a backdrop of increased production”, abounded, in a note, Bart Melek, of TD Securites, who sees Brent around 85 dollars in average in the first quarter, which is almost its current rate.
For the second half of the year, he anticipates a series of elements affecting supply, from a drop in Russian exports to a possible reduction in production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), passing by the consequences of chronic underinvestment in the United States.
He thus sees Brent ending the year above 100 dollars a barrel.
A sentiment shared by Goldman Sachs analysts, who announce Brent at 105 dollars in the fourth quarter of 2023.