The cost of living crisis, a consequence of inflation exacerbated by the war in Ukraine and the post-COVID reopening of the economy, is the number one global risk for the next two years, according to a survey by the World Economic Forum.
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This risk, which creates strong tensions in many regions of the world by pushing millions of people into extreme poverty while fueling societal tensions, exceeds that of natural disasters and extreme climatic events, however identified as the greatest risk of long term.
“Geoeconomic conflicts and tensions have triggered a series of deeply interconnected planetary risks,” according to a statement for the launch of the World Economic Forum’s 2023 Global Risks Report, a survey of 1,200 experts and policymakers released Wednesday.
These risks include “pressure on energy and food supply, which is expected to last for the next two years, and sharp increases in the crisis in the cost of living and the cost of debt” due to a spike in energy prices and interest rates, the statement continued.
They “harm efforts to combat other long-term threats, mainly climate change” and the collapse of biodiversity, the statement continues, 5 days before the start of the major annual meeting of the World Economic Forum, which takes place in Davos from January 16 to 20.
The report, produced in partnership with insurance and risk management consultancy Marsh McLennan and insurer Zurich Insurance Group, calls for rapid global collaborative action in the face of “shrinking windows of action”. rapidly”.
“The global pandemic and the war in Europe have brought to the fore the crises of energy, inflation, food and security”, develops the press release, which also evokes the risk of “societies polarized by disinformation and bad information” or even “geoeconomic wars”.
“Unless the world begins to collaborate effectively on moderation (of climate change) and on climate adaptation, the next ten years will bring more global warming and ecological collapse”, underlines the text.
At the same time, crises linked to geopolitical rivalries between different countries “threaten to create societal distress on an unprecedented level, as investments in health, education and economic development disappear, further eroding cohesion social”.
Another harmful consequence of these rivalries: a resumption of armament and militarization, particularly through new technologies or rogue actors,” the report concludes.
At a press conference in London, one of the leaders of the World Economic Forum, Saadia Zahidi, underlined that the experts and officials interviewed during the survey believed that traditional conflicts had become a lower risk compared to geo-economic wars (sanctions , trade barriers, etc.) or computer barriers.
“The nature of conflict is changing,” she said. “That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be worried, because for the first time in a long time military spending has seen a small but marked increase in many major economies,” she said.