Around year 1 of the war in Ukraine
On February 24, Russia invaded Ukraine. Russia failed to force regime change, and Ukrainian forces have since regained control of several swathes of their territory. “Will we be entitled to a continuation of the Ukrainian counter-offensive this winter, as many anticipate? asks Yann Breault, assistant professor at the Royal Military College Saint-Jean. The fear of a new major Russian offensive, including towards kyiv, is also present. The position of the two camps seems irreconcilable. The Russians, who have been attacking energy infrastructure since this fall, have not lost hope of conquering territories. For its part, Ukraine is counting on Russian losses and on a loss of steam in Russia’s industrial capacity, which has so far enabled it to continue the war.
Ex-President Donald Trump faces justice
The year promises to be difficult for former United States President Donald Trump, who must fight on several legal fronts as he announced his candidacy for the 2024 presidential elections. assault on the Capitol on January 6, 2021 notably recommended criminal charges against the controversial businessman, accusing him of four crimes. The rest now rests with the Department of Justice. The department is further investigating the removal of government documents from the White House, which were then transferred to Mar-a-Lago, Donald Trump’s property in Florida. The role of the former president in trying to invalidate the results of the 2020 election is also being scrutinized by the courts.
“Bogus” elections in Myanmar
After a coup in February 2021, the military junta leader promised “free and fair” elections in Myanmar later this year. But the claim is met with great skepticism. “It’s total fiction. There is no legitimate and legal basis, says John Packer, professor of law and director of the Center for Research and Education on Human Rights at the University of Ottawa. It will be very difficult to conduct elections. The country is experiencing a lot of instability. Myanmar’s ousted leader Aung San Suu Kyi has been imprisoned since the coup, and the country has seen an outbreak of violence. The junta could continue to rule with disproportionate force, and the expert anticipates that if the situation deteriorates, there could be overflows and large flows of refugees.
COVID-19 at the gates of 2023
COVID-19 is knocking on our doors again for the year 2023. New Omicron sub-variants are gaining momentum and ones to watch. The relaxation of draconian measures in China to control the transmission of the virus is also causing concern. “There will be a more active and more important transmission. More mutations are possible, which may impact other countries. China is the hot spot on the planet for COVID-19 right now,” said virologist Benoit Barbeau, professor in the Department of Biological Sciences at the University of Quebec in Montreal. The BF.7 subvariant, which is overwhelming China, and the XBB.1.5, which is spreading rapidly in the United States, are on the radar. “With a new sub-variant that is more transmissible and risks more actively infecting even vaccinated people, it could add an additional complication,” says the expert.
Erdoğan’s future at stake in Turkey
In Turkey, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan faces a united opposition in the upcoming legislative and presidential elections. In power for almost twenty years, he is given as a loser in the polls and he could lose the majority in parliament. The erosion of power, the degradation of the rule of law and its economic policy, particularly monetary, have made the statesman unpopular. “Erdoğan will use all imaginable, and even unimaginable, means to stay in power,” warns Marc Pierini, Turkey specialist at the Carnegie-Europe Institute. Ekrem Imamoglu, the mayor of Istanbul, seen as a serious candidate for the opposition, was recently sentenced to two years and seven months in prison and to the suspension of his political activities for an equivalent period.
The coronation of King Charles III
The very long reign of Queen Elizabeth II ended with her on September 8, 2022, in her Scottish castle of Balmoral. The coronation of his son, King Charles III, 74, will take place on May 6 at Westminster Abbey, London, alongside his wife, Queen Consort Camilla. The palace is preparing for a more modest coronation than that of Elizabeth II in 1953, and wants to “reflect modern, multicultural Britain”. The ceremony will last an hour, compared to three for the late queen, and the guest list will be reduced from 8,000 to 2,000. The explosive revelations about the royal family of Prince Harry and his wife, Meghan Markle, who continue to s accumulating and fueling conversations for several months, could also come to tint the celebrations.
Chaos in a Haiti in crisis
Haiti is plunged into a humanitarian crisis, while criminal armed groups are wreaking havoc. Access to health care, electricity and drinking water is limited, and hundreds of people have been killed or kidnapped. Added to this is a political crisis since the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse in July 2021. Will there be elections soon? This was suggested by interim Prime Minister Ariel Henry, who promised a timetable for holding “popular consultations”, as was the case a year earlier. On the airwaves of France 24, Jean-Marie Théodat, lecturer at the University of Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, however, believes that it is “a delaying tactic”. ” He [Ariel Henry] never had legitimacy. It’s a way of giving yourself time to be able to keep the power. »
Taiwan still resists China
China is stepping up military maneuvers around Taiwan, and relations between the two states, already tense, have deteriorated in 2022. Beijing considers the island as part of its territory, and the fear of a reconquest by force is present. “China has an increasingly important military potential,” comments Frédéric Lasserre, professor at Laval University. But the threat is not necessarily short-term, he adds. “It is not impossible that, in the 2030s or 2040s, Beijing will say to itself that the political option does not work and that it resolves to the military option”, he analyzes. Beijing makes no secret of the fact that it wants Taiwan fully back in its fold by 2049, the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party’s accession to power.
Revolt in Iran
The population challenges the power in Iran, and the regime finds itself weakened. The death in custody on September 16, 2022 of a young woman, who had been arrested by the morality police for allegedly violating the Islamic Republic’s strict dress code, set things on fire. Since the beginning of the protest movement, justice has sentenced 14 people to death in connection with the demonstrations, according to an AFP count. According to Iranian opponents in exile, the year 2023 will be fruitful for the protesters. “By organizing ourselves and showing solidarity, [nous sommes sûrs que] 2023 will be the year of victory for the Iranian nation. The year of freedom and justice in Iran”, declared simultaneously on their personal accounts on social networks leading personalities in the fields of culture, human rights or even the sports world.