The votes have followed and resembled each other for three days in the United States House of Representatives. No consensus emerges around the favorite, Kevin McCarthy. The cracks in Republican unity are coming to light. The credibility of the “Grand Old Party” takes a hit, as does that of Donald Trump. To analyse.
“It’s really crazy,” says Douglas Heye, former director of communications at the House of Representatives under the Bush administration. “About 5% of Republicans oppose and everything stops. »
“Crazy”, perhaps, but not surprising for this former Republican strategist who has seen the American political face metamorphose for years. “We have a leadership that is rewarded for bad behavior. [La frange extrémiste] is able to raise money, get media attention, television, and so on. There’s a conservative ecosystem that’s going to support that in a way that didn’t exist 10 years ago. »
The tenor of these free electrons, Matt Gaetz, has been shouting on all platforms for a week to attack the credibility of the favorite of the Republican majority in the House. “Kevin McCarthy has no ideology. It’s a vessel through which lobbyists and special interests operate,” he quipped. in a recent tweet.
The louder the mouth, the stronger the pocket: this could be the leitmotif of Republicans, and even of elected Americans in general.
“There’s a reason why we know Matt Gaetz and not Gus Bilirakis. Or we know who Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is, but we don’t know who Peter Welch is, ”gives Douglas Heye as an example. “Yet these are the people who do the real, the good, the hard work of legislators. But they do not capture attention. If Americans are polled, they know Matt Gaetz way more than the next head of the House Appropriations Committee [qui réglemente toutes les dépenses du gouvernement]. We are caught with an inverted incentive structure. »
Who leads the Republican Party? Not Donald Trump, in any case, who, despite explicit support for Kevin McCarthy, fails to control more radical than him. “What Trump did is not the best Trump does. He did not personally go against those who were against him. He didn’t create a nickname to attack Matt Gaetz or the others. He didn’t put pressure on them. He just said, “Kevin is good, he should be the president.” And they were able to ignore that,” notes Mr. Heye.
Compromise and conflict of personalities
The negotiations, one guesses, are intense behind the scenes. Kevin McCarthy is throwing ballast to land the job he craves.
According to the Politico website, several concessions have been granted to the rebels: a vote on member term limits, more seats for members of the nebulous ultra-conservative “freedom caucus” on the powerful internal rules committee, as well as the allowing a single member to force a vote on the removal of the president. This last concession greatly weakens the foundations of the president, whoever he is.
“Most of the people we hear from, especially Matt Gaetz, are driven by a personality clash. Kevin [McCarthy] tries to negotiate, he finds an agreement on something, but it is not enough. We want more. “OK, I’ll give you that,” he replies. But this is still not enough. And it all continues because of a clash of personalities. These personal attacks will leave behind salient divisions for the remainder of Congress’s term, and will undoubtedly tarnish the image of the “Grand Old Party.”
Just two months ago, American voters refused to elect several hardline Republican candidates. The current discord only cements the idea that Republicans genuinely have a problem on their fringes. And above all, the GOP does not take advantage of its majority in the House of Representatives. Without a president, it is impossible to trigger investigations into the Biden government as the party promised to do.
Who else but McCarthy?
Steve Scalise’s name is circulating as another possible option. Number 2 of the Republicans in the House, he is reputed to be a solid conservative. He ran for office in the most conservative district in the state of Louisiana before dropping out at the last minute. His “loyalty” has also been noted, according to Pearson Cross, a political scientist at the University of Louisiana at Lafayette, who knows him well.
“He comes to the defense of the Party [républicain] as a whole, trying to find a way to make people work together. He is not a person who attracts as much media coverage as other congressional figures who gargle with controversy. It is not controversial. He is very mainstream. »
Whether mainstream that he pours into Trump conspiracy. “He voted not to certify the 2020 election. He is part of the ‘freedom caucus’. I even believe that he is one of the most conservative members of Congress, while having leadership,” observes Professor Cross. “I really think he has a chance to become president. [de la Chambre] though it’s clear that McCarthy won’t. »
This whole political circus could go on for a long time. The Senate returns to the chamber on January 23, which could make the dysfunctional House of Representatives even more concrete in the eyes of the public. Nobody knows how it will all end: after all, such a situation has not happened for more than 100 years.