No salvoes of rockets, no attacks, no riots: the visit of the new Israeli nationalist minister Itamar Ben Gvir to the esplanade of the Mosques in East Jerusalem has only aroused condemnation. For now, analysts warn.
The herald of the far right, in charge since last week of National Security, had already visited the esplanade, but not as a minister.
Mr. Ben Gvir, known for his anti-Palestinian diatribes, had declared his intention to continue visiting this third holiest site in Islam and holiest site in Judaism known as the “Temple Mount”, located in the Palestinian part of Jerusalem, occupied and annexed by Israel and at the heart of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
His visit on Tuesday, under the escort of Israeli forces, recalled that of opposition leader Ariel Sharon in September 2000, which led to the Second Intifada, a Palestinian uprising (2000-2005).
In the Gaza Strip, the ruling Islamist movement Hamas, which has waged four wars against Israel in the past, has already claimed that such a visit was a “red line”.
In Gaza, the political and military offices of Hamas and armed Palestinian factions held meetings on Tuesday to decide on a “proportional” reaction to the minister’s “assault”, sources in the movement told AFP.
During the night, a rocket was launched towards Israel from the enclave under Israeli blockade, but it ran aground in the Palestinian territory. Single shot, unclaimed.
Hamas “does not want a new military escalation and is currently measuring American and Arab reactions,” Jamal al-Fadi, professor of political science at al-Azhar University in Gaza, told AFP.
All the Gulf countries, including the United Arab Emirates having normalized their relations with the Jewish state, Jordan and Egypt strongly condemned the visit, like several Western countries including the United States.
” Provocation “
In Gaza, an impoverished enclave of 2.3 million people, “Hamas is looking for gains for the citizens” and thus may have exercised restraint in its response in order to use it as an asset in the indirect negotiations with the Jewish state, believes Mr. al-Fadi.
Through mediation by the UN, Egypt and Qatar, Hamas and Israel had already agreed to ease the blockade, with in particular the granting of work permits in Israel for Gazans, in exchange for a calm in this micro-territory.
Another subject of discussion: the release of Palestinian prisoners in exchange for the remains of two Israeli soldiers killed during the 2014 war in Gaza and the return of two Israeli citizens presumed alive who are also in the hands of Hamas.
“Hamas will not make emotional reactions, but in the event of repeated assaults on holy sites, which will constitute a great provocation for the Palestinians and the Arab-Muslim world, it will create pressure for an escalation”, stresses Mr Fadi.
For the Israeli daily Ha’aretzthe “first sensitive deadline will be this Friday’s prayer” on the esplanade, bringing together tens of thousands of worshipers each week and sometimes leading to clashes with the Israeli police who guard access to it.
“Another problem is that past experience shows that widely publicized incidents on the Temple Mount tend to encourage (Palestinian) lone wolves to carry out attacks,” the left-leaning daily continues.
” Blast “
On the side of the Palestinian Authority based in the occupied West Bank, President Mahmoud Abbas said he wanted to refer the matter to the UN. Officials blasted an “unprecedented provocation”.
But for Nour Odeh, Palestinian analyst, the Palestinian Authority, decried in recent years, “no longer has the cards in hand” and has relied on the reactions of Arab countries.
“But they are aware that the longer this situation lasts, the more negative their image will be, if that is even possible,” she says.
According to her, expecting an immediate response to the minister’s visit is not “realistic”. But “Ben Gvir is putting the pressure on when the situation on the ground is already very intense”. According to the UN, the toll of Palestinians killed in operations or clashes with Israeli forces in 2022 is the highest in years.
“Nobody knows what this explosion will look like” or when it will occur, warns Ms. Odeh.