Conflicts to follow in 2023

The new year once again promises to be full of twists and turns, for better and for worse. The Press highlights the situation of a few countries likely to attract attention.

Ukraine

The Russian military offensive against Ukraine and the determined response of the regime of President Volodymyr Zelensky and the people of the country have marked the spirits in 2022 and will continue to do so. Maria Popova, a political scientist from McGill University, thinks that the Ukrainian troops, after recapturing the Kherson area in November, are preparing to go back on the offensive in an attempt to recover the territories still occupied by Moscow, in particular in the south of the country. At the same time, Ukrainians will have to continue to contend with the Russian regime’s attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure, which are set to become less and less effective, notes M^me Popova, as the quality of air defense systems supplied to Kyiv improves. The Russian army has not said its last word and is even preparing for the first months of the year a new offensive likely to target the capital, Ukrainian leaders warned shortly before Christmas, urging their allies not to let their guard down. .

Iran

The rebellion of Iranian women removing their headscarves to defy the dictates of the Islamic Republic has turned into a full-scale uprising that shows no signs of abating. Iranian-born political scientist Houchang Hassan-Yari, who is affiliated with the Royal Military College of Canada, believes the authorities’ heavy-handed response, including the execution of young protesters, is only strengthening the resolve of the population. “The fear that existed before has disappeared,” notes the analyst, who finds it hard to see how the regime will be able to survive the crisis in the long term. The protests are also complicating Iranian leaders’ efforts to lift international sanctions related to the country’s nuclear program. Ali Vaez, who follows the case for the International Crisis Group, notes that the United States and the European Union are reluctant to deal with the regime on this subject while it is actively repressing its population. In the absence of an agreement, Tehran plays the hard line and pursues the enrichment of uranium to a level approaching more and more the threshold required to produce the nuclear weapon, underlines Mr. Vaez. He does not rule out the possibility that the standoff could lead to an Israeli attack, backed by Washington, against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. “The current status quo – no agreement, no crisis – is not sustainable for the coming year,” he warns.

Haiti

The street gangs that make rain or shine in Port-au-Prince and its region have significantly strengthened their sources of funding and are in a position to continue their action regardless of the dictates of members of the political elite having them. long used to advance their interests. Diego Da Rin, an International Crisis Group analyst who recently visited Haiti, thinks Western countries have set an important precedent by targeting some of the politicians involved with sanctions, but warns that the increased autonomy of gangs means that the problem of insecurity remains unresolved. It took on glaring acuity during the year during the blocking of a major oil terminal orchestrated by the G9, a group of gangs headed by an ex-policeman. The dispatch of an international intervention force, actively considered by Washington and Ottawa, is desired by the interim Prime Minister, Ariel Henry, but cannot materialize if he does not succeed in reaching an agreement with the opposition. in order to lay the foundations of a transitional government capable of preparing the ground for the holding of new elections, warns Mr. Da Rin. The population itself remains largely reserved with regard to such an intervention, in particular, underlines the analyst, because past initiatives have not yielded convincing results.

Ethiopia

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who won the Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts to reconcile Eritrea, went to war in his own country two years ago to overcome the rebels’ desire for autonomy. of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). After bloody fighting that left thousands dead, displaced millions and engulfed other areas, the two sides reached an agreement in November to end the conflict. Martin Plaut, author and journalist who closely follows developments in the country, notes that it is far from guaranteeing the return to a lasting peace, in particular because the intentions of the Eritrean regime, which has supported Addis Ababa by providing troops always present in Tigray, remain uncertain. The delicate question of the distribution of powers between the central government and the regions is not resolved either, stresses Mr Plaut. He is alarmed to see that fighting has intensified recently in Oromia, another Ethiopian region with a large separatist movement. The risk of a fragmentation of the country remains real, he warns in conclusion.

Yemen

The conflict in this Middle Eastern country has caused, according to the United Nations, one of the most serious humanitarian crises on the planet, and nothing suggests that things will improve in this regard in 2023, warns Thomas Juneau, specialist of the region attached to the University of Ottawa. Houthi rebels, who control the capital, Sanaa, and large swaths of the country’s north, concluded a months-long truce in 2022 with forces led by a coalition led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, but it was not renewed, opening the door to a resumption of fighting. Mr. Juneau notes that it is clear in hindsight that the two camps had agreed to the truce for short-term strategic reasons and not to find a lasting solution to the crisis, which is not close to ending, he says. . The Houthis, backed by Iran, are in a strong position militarily, but are unable to impose themselves nationwide. At the same time, Riyadh wishes to disengage from the conflict, but would thus open the way to a total victory for the Shiite rebels. Which, underlines Mr. Juneau, would permanently place an ally of the Iranian enemy on its southern flank.

Taiwan

Many analysts have speculated in 2022 that the Russian intervention in Ukraine will inspire China to take action to reintegrate Taiwan into national control. Although he has multiplied military intimidation maneuvers, in particular during the visit to the island of American politician Nancy Pelosi, President Xi Jinping has not taken the plunge. Serge Granger, China specialist attached to the University of Sherbrooke, thinks that Beijing will have a lot to do in the coming year to revive its economy while coping with the outbreak of COVID-19 resulting from the lifting of health restrictions and will not, in this context, want to embark on a major military adventure. Even less if it is likely to lead to a frontal confrontation with the United States, which has raised its voice on the Taiwan issue, departing from its traditional approach of “strategic ambivalence” to underline its willingness to defend Taipei in the event of attack.