If all humans emitted as many greenhouse gases per capita as Canadians, global emissions would be 10 times too high to hope to limit warming to a sustainable threshold. This is what emerges from data recorded in a new federal report submitted to the UN. Based on the measures in place and those to come, the Trudeau government is however confident of being able to achieve its climate objectives for the current decade.
The Canadian government issued a press release on Tuesday, January 3 to announce the publication on Monday of a new “progress report” which is being tabled to meet the requirements of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The 580-page technical document reports progress in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, as of 2020, but also progress expected by the end of the decade.
Unsurprisingly, the data points to a marked decline in national GHG emissions in 2020, amid a global pandemic. These have thus fallen from 738 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 to 672 Mt in 2020. The data for the year 2021, which should indicate a rebound in GHG emissions, as observed elsewhere in the world, are not yet available.
The observed decline in GHG emissions has had the effect of reducing emissions per capita, which fell to 17.7 tons in 2020, compared to 19.6 in 2019. It remains to be seen how big the rebound will be in 2021, but over a five-year period (2016 to 2020), the average emissions per Canadian was 19.4 tonnes.
This figure is more than four times the global average of emissions per capita. By way of comparison, per capita emissions in Quebec are estimated at 8.6 tonnes, according to the most recent GHG inventory, that of 2020.
Unsurprisingly, the world’s poorest countries — many of which are already feeling the impacts of the climate crisis — have much lower per capita GHG emissions. The average for Latin American and Caribbean countries is 2.64 tonnes. In sub-Saharan Africa, it reaches 0.76 tonnes, according to World Bank data.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the average emissions per capita, on a global scale, should be reduced to two tons to hope to achieve the most ambitious objective of the Agreement of Paris, or limit global warming to +1.5°C, compared to the pre-industrial era.
Oil and transportation
The high GHG balance of Canadian citizens is partly due to the significant emissions of certain sectors of the economy, according to what emerges from the report tabled at the UN by Ottawa on December 31.
Thus, from 1990 to 2020, the oil and gas sector saw its GHG emissions increase by 76 Mt, but including a decline of 25 Mt between 2019 and 2020, which brought the annual balance to 178.8 Mt. of the increase is attributable to a 725% growth in oil sands production, which resulted in a 430% increase in GHGs from the industry.
In the transport sector, the government calculates that emissions accounted for 24% of the national balance sheet in 2020, the second largest sector, after oil and gas. Again, there is a marked increase between 1990 and 2019, before a drop in emissions during the height of the pandemic.
Confident Guilbeault
Reacting to the data recorded in the new report submitted to the UN, the federal Minister of Environment and Climate Change, Steven Guilbeault, said he was confident of achieving Canada’s climate objectives for the present decade. The Trudeau government is aiming for a 40% reduction in emissions by 2030, compared to 2005 levels. This would involve emitting 443 Mt, instead of the 741 Mt in 2005.
According to the Minister, this target “remains not only within reach, but realistic”. In a press release, he recalled that additional GHG reduction measures will be announced in 2023, including the capping of emissions from the oil and gas sector. “Additional measures continue to be developed, both for Canada to meet its 2030 target and to support deeper reductions after 2030.”
The “Emissions Reduction Plan for 2030”, published in 2022, also provides for investments of 9.1 billion dollars to reduce emissions in various sectors, including the transport sector. Despite the international geopolitical context disrupted by the war in Ukraine, the Trudeau government says it is staying the course on its objective of achieving “carbon neutrality by 2050”.
Within the framework of “projections” developed by the federal government, taking into account the measures already implemented should make it possible to reduce Canadian emissions to 625 Mt in 2030. But by adding “additional measures which are being developed but which have not yet been fully implemented”, the annual balance would be 491 Mt in 2030 and the target of 443 Mt would be reached in 2035, estimates Ottawa.
Reviews
According to the most recent edition of the “Climate Change Performance Index” (which assesses the value of states’ climate commitments and policies), Canada ranks 58th in a ranking of 60 states, i.e. 59 countries and the European Union .
Canada’s overall performance is therefore at a “very low” level, according to what emerges from the portrait drawn up by the organizations Germanwatch, New Climate Institute and the Climate Action Network.
The report highlights in particular that Canada is still not on the path to reducing oil and gas exploitation, even though several scientific reports have highlighted the need to reduce production to limit the increase in global temperatures.
What’s more, the government should review its GHG reduction target and “strengthen” its climate plan, so as to achieve the objective of carbon neutrality by 2050. If we applied here the target to be achieved to limit global warming to 1.5°C, according to the IPCC, emissions are expected to reach 416 Mt in 2030. The difference with the federal target of 443 Mt, or 27 Mt, is equivalent to the annual emissions of 11 million cars.