(Nashville) Stability can most certainly be a virtue. But it can also become a drag. The Nashville Predators are slowly but surely approaching that second definition.
A little over a third of the teams on the circuit still have their three best scorers from the 2018-2019 season on their roster. The list is prestigious. It features the last three Stanley Cup winners. One team reached the final and three others the semi-finals. The recipe works, there is no rush to change it.
There is also, in this group, the Predators. The latter, at the end of the 2010s, went from a dominant club to a subscriber club in the middle of the pack.
The past two seasons have resulted in a tight entry into the playoffs. However, this time, the recipe seems to have stopped working. The Predz are six points from a playoff berth, with the Colorado Avalanche ahead of them and the St. Louis Blues to pass. Even if we have not yet reached the halfway point, it is difficult to imagine that the representatives of the city of country will go up the slope.
“We are gaining in confidence,” nevertheless underlined defender Jérémy Lauzon, Monday, after his team’s training. This confidence, precisely, has been eroded by a pitiful start to the season of seven defeats in ten games. And more by a series of six losses in December. It took an overtime win over the Edmonton Oilers to “take the pressure off everyone’s shoulders,” Carrier said. But the damage was done.
Flat in attack
This ugly posture the Predators find themselves in is all the more surprising given that they are counting on a roster largely similar to last year’s – probably superior, in fact, given the additions of Nino Niederreiter in attack and Ryan McDonagh. in defence.
The offensive problems, however, are numerous. The lack of finish is glaring. The scoring chances are there, but not the goals. And this, despite the presence of renowned offensive players like Filip Forsberg and Matt Duchene, who are surrounded by quality skaters in Niederreiter, Mikael Granlund and Ryan Johansen, among others. Behind them, many are the sure values: Roman Josi, Mattias Ekholm, McDonagh, Alexandre Carrier, Dante Fabbro…
However, all situations combined, the Predateors only score 2.63 goals per game, in 29e NHL rank. A production equal to that of the Montreal Canadiens, a franchise in full reconstruction.
“I just think it clicked a little less at the start of the season, analyzed Jérémy Lauzon. Recently, we started to create a little more attack. The NHL is the toughest league in the world. Even if you’re successful one season, that doesn’t mean you’re going to be successful the next. There it starts to click. We must continue on this path. »
Matt Duchene instead directed the conversation towards the power play – 16.8%, one of the worst performances on the circuit.
“It was a driving force for us last year, but we haven’t been good all season in that regard,” he said. We absolutely have to keep improving that. Even if we don’t score a goal, we have to be threatening. It will help our five-on-five game. »
Again, it looks like a chorus heard at the Canadian. And no, that’s not a compliment.
Flat in defense
It’s not just offensively that things aren’t going well.
At first glance, the Predators defense looks good. There is a long tradition of excellence in this position in Nashville. The brigade, on paper, is still impressive.
However, when we look at it more closely, it is not brilliant. The 3.03 goals against per game, very close to the median of the league, is an indication that we are not flirting with the elite. At five against five, we give a lot of chances to score quality. If the situation is not even worse, it is mainly thanks to Juuse Saros. Advanced statistics sites calculate that he has already ‘saved’ 13 goals this season. With an attack looking for itself, giving up those 13 goals would have been enough to convert a lot of wins into losses.
“We’re lucky to have good goaltenders who make good saves when we need them,” admitted Carrier.
About the defensive performance of his troop, he too talks about confidence. “Everyone is going to make mistakes on the ice; we have to see how to respond to it, he says. We try to make more plays to create attack, but sometimes it will create turnovers. We must continue to create chances at the right time. »
Realistically, Matt Duchene notes that “at some point, you will have to win four or five in a row” to dream of the playoffs. Failing to do so would be bad news for a team whose main stars in attack and defense are all in their thirties – with the exception of Forsberg – and are all under contract for at least two more seasons at a heavy price.
Alexandre Carrier assures that the group “loves to play together” and that “everyone appreciates each other in the locker room”. It’s a hell of a chance. Because this formation is, in a way, condemned to live and die with the core in place.
If its star should have faded for good, it will be a lot less festive on Broadway for the next few years.