On the eve of Christmas, we are busy in the houses, feverish, nervous perhaps, at the idea of finally coming together, after two pandemic Christmas Eve. It must be said that the atmosphere is not much more cheerful than last year at the same date. The high cost of living, the hospital crisis, the generalized social exhaustion; to appreciate the rejoicings, it can be useful to master the art of illusions.
On this subject, we can draw inspiration from the optimism displayed this week by Environment Minister Benoit Charette, who presented a report from his department on the achievement of Quebec’s greenhouse gas emission reduction targets. (GHG) for the year 2020. By combining the effect of the pandemic and the contribution of the carbon market, we learn, Quebec has reduced its emissions by 26.6% compared to 1990 levels. This result exceeds the 20% target set for that year.
The minister acknowledged the contribution of the pandemic to this assessment, while saying he was convinced that the objective would have been achieved despite everything. The government thus affirmed that “after a first year of starting the Plan for a green economy 2030 (PEV 2030), the data show that Quebec will be able to achieve its ambitions”. The pandemic effect, therefore, would only be a small nudge that magnifies the otherwise laudable efforts made by the government.
It will be recalled that independent evaluations
conclude that the measures included in the Plan for a Green Economy are “largely insufficient” for Quebec to meet its GHG reduction target of 37.5% by 2030, and that it is now almost certain that the province will miss this target. Never mind, the results for 2020 are presented to us as proof — cautious, balanced, but proof all the same — that we are moving in the right direction, thanks to sustained efforts and “structuring measures “.
As is often the case, take the time to read the fine print. Of the 26.6% reduction recorded in the 2020 report, we see that only 13.2% constitutes a real reduction in the emissions made by Quebecers. The other 13.4% comes instead from the acquisition of emission rights on the carbon market between Quebec and California.
So let’s rephrase the message: while “Quebec was on pause” during the first pandemic wave, telework was almost generalized, businesses were closed, travel was prohibited, interregional travel was limited and sports and leisure activities were suspended, Quebec missed its reduction target by 6.8% compared to the 20% objective set for 2020. Our dependence on fossil fuels is such that even when the economy is severely disrupted, mobility restricted and social ties sorely tested, our way of life is unsustainable. The observation of this deficiency should be at the heart of the “structuring measures” of which the minister speaks.
As for the addition of Californian emission rights, to be happy about it, we have to believe that it is enough to impute the reduction efforts of others to our balance sheet to have peace of mind. Here again, as explained by Pierre-Olivier Pineau, holder of the Chair of Energy Sector Management at HEC Montréal, in reaction to the report presented by the Minister: [U]n emission right is not a reduction, but the right to emit a ton of GHGs into the atmosphere. »
The rights acquired by the Quebec government therefore do not even represent, in this case, a GHG reduction achieved in California. It is only an emission right held by this State, which issued a greater number of rights on the carbon market than its Quebec partner, because its reduction target for 2020 was lower. This amounts to, at best, buying an indulgence.
From this perspective, the cautious victory announced by the government looks more like an alarming defeat – the most recent in a long series. When we notice this laxity and, precisely, the total absence of really structuring measures, it is difficult to hope that Quebecers themselves adapt their lifestyles. The picture is not very bright in this regard, despite the disruption caused by the pandemic. Our lives have changed a lot over the past three years, but our morals remain just as energy-intensive.
Let’s just take automobile transport. We know that between 2020 and 2021 there was an unprecedented jump in the purchase of SUVs. This year, the trend continues across the country, according to Statistics Canada. In 2021, 71% of new vehicles sold were gas-powered SUVs and pickups. The proportion of electric SUVs remains negligible and is growing slowly. This could change with the new targets and incentives presented by Ottawa, but nothing is certain.
There is of course the unavoidable question of the real alternatives to the car, but there is in these data something of the order of preferences, which seems completely out of step with the requirements of the time. It’s like an infinite mirror effect, bordering on immobility: no change in habits without structuring reforms, no change in culture without a profound transformation of public action. However, the political instrumentalization of the art of illusions has become a dangerous game.