You can almost count the number of signs in the riding of Mississauga-Lakeshore on the fingers of one hand, but make no mistake: the region is in election mode. Monday evening, the popularity of the government of Justin Trudeau will be tested in this riding not far from Toronto, a hinge region for the federal parties, on the occasion of a by-election which will oppose a familiar face and a newcomer .
Liberal candidate Charles Sousa needs no introduction in Port Credit, a neighborhood south of the riding on the shores of Lake Ontario. The former Ontario finance minister was the local MPP from 2007 to 2018, and he grew up in this municipality of 715,000 people, west of the Queen City. “He was a good minister,” recalls Dave Taylor. “It’s a very good candidate,” said Bob Fellows, met in front of a grocery store on Lakeshore Road.
However, the game is not won in advance for Mr. Sousa: at the provincial level, the Conservatives of Doug Ford won the bet in the elections of 2018 and 2022.
And according to Peter Graefe, professor of political science at McMaster University, the Liberal candidate does not have the brightest profile. “He’s not someone who gets a lot of credit for great accomplishments,” he says. Mr. Sousa was also part of the government of Kathleen Wynne, which was very unpopular, notes meanwhile Greg Lyle, president of the polling firm Innovative Research.
His main opponent, the conservative Ron Chhinzer, had a visit from Pierre Poilievre – who is wearing the hat of federal party leader for the first time during the election period – and can count on a local partisan base. “I voted for Ron because he’s a Conservative,” says Sharon, who prefers not to share her last name. “I will probably vote conservative,” slips Phil Hale. The Mississauga resident is unhappy with recent moves by Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives, but the Federal Conservatives still suit him. “I’ve never been pro-Trudeau,” he says.
Mississauga-Lakeshore is a barometer riding, says Liberal candidate Charles Sousa. “It could go either way. »
And while Professor Graefe warns that by-elections should not be overemphasized, given the low turnout that is usually seen in them, a Liberal defeat could indicate declining popularity. “If the Conservatives want to regain power one day, this is exactly the type of riding they must learn to win,” says poll analyst Philippe J. Fournier.
A ministerial candidate?
A real parade of federal ministers took place in November in Mississauga–Lakeshore, whose seat has been vacant since the departure of Liberal MP Sven Spengemann last summer. The Minister of Public Security, Marco Mendicino, and the Minister of International Trade, Mary Ng, notably visited Charles Sousa. Some analysts also believe that the latter could join the Trudeau cabinet given his experience at the provincial level, although political scientist Peter Graefe doubts it.
Either way, the prospect of their MP becoming finance minister — one of the most high-profile jobs in the federal government — could encourage voters to give him their vote, says Myer Siemiatycki, professor emeritus of political science at Metropolitan University of Toronto. “There’s a feeling among the people of Mississauga that the rest of the country doesn’t respect them, that they don’t give them the recognition they deserve,” he said. The appointment of one of them to Finance could respond to this desire for recognition, thinks the professor.
During a short telephone interview, the principal concerned is content to say that he only seeks to be elected. “I didn’t think of getting other positions in the government,” he continues.
His conservative opponent Ron Chhinzer, who has also had the visit of several influential members of his party in recent weeks, has been more discreet since the start of the campaign. “We don’t do a lot of interviews,” noted a volunteer from his campaign office. Mr. Chhinzer was not there when the To have toand his team did not respond to interview requests.
hot wrestling
The result is likely to be tight Monday, said the president of the polling firm Innovative Research, Greg Lyle. Liberals and Conservatives are on an equal footing in Canada-wide voting intentions, and the parties in power usually suffer a slight setback in by-elections.
Everything is therefore likely to be played out on the ground, according to Mr. Lyle. Will Pierre Poilievre’s team, led by organizer Jenni Byrne, repeat the exploits of its Conservative leadership campaign, during which it recruited more than 300,000 members? This is the question that the pollster is asking.
There is a feeling among the people of Mississauga that the rest of the country does not respect them
In the Port Credit district, some voters say they are still undecided three days before the vote. “I often vote based on the candidate’s background. I love that Charles Sousa was Ontario’s finance minister,” explains Suzanne Laferrière, a Franco-Ontarian from Alexandria, a small municipality in the east of the province. “I have to see what Ron Chhinzer did,” she said. I can go from one party to another,” explains the voter.
This story is supported by the Local Journalism Initiative, funded by the Government of Canada.