We have not finished making the leap to the supermarket by seeing the prices. After a year of record inflation, the cost of the basket should jump another 5 to 7% in 2023. For a family of four with two teenagers, the bill could rise by $1,066 to reach $16,288.
These numbers are shocking.
But it would be wrong to qualify them from the outset as exaggerated. The prediction comes from Canadian Food Prices Report unveiled this Monday and written by experts from the universities of Guelph, Dalhousie, Saskatchewan and British Columbia. Their history speaks for itself.
“We got it wrong twice in 12 years and both times we underestimated inflation,” one of the authors, the senior director of the Agri-Food Analytical Sciences Laboratory at Dalhousie University, tells me. , Sylvain Charlebois.
Last year, the group predicted a 7% increase in the price of the basket, which had been deemed “alarmist” by some. However, food inflation has exceeded the 10% mark in the country. In Quebec, we are even close to 11%.
Roughly speaking, each of us will therefore have to pay $4,000 for food next year. The bill will be a little higher for teenagers who are growing visibly, a little less for seniors and women. See some examples.
No food category will be spared from inflation. Vegetables, dairy, meat and baked goods could all jump 5-7%. Fruits and seafood benefit from a slightly lower prediction.
The good news is that a respite could occur in the second half of the year, says Sylvain Charlebois. But the first six months of 2023 will feel like we’re shopping in groundhog day.
The other encouraging news for Quebecers is that the price of their basket will not soar above the national average as was the case in 2022, believe the authors of the report.
As one might expect, all the factors that have been contributing to the bill for months will not disappear: climate change, cost of inputs (fertilizer, feed, etc.), cost of transportation, relative weakness of the Canadian dollar, problems in the supply chain, war in Ukraine…the list goes on.
All this may seem far and vague, but for many households, the consequences on daily life will be very concrete. In fact, many consumers have already changed their habits to save in a context where wages are rising more slowly than inflation and where interest rates are soaring: changing groceries, reducing their purchases of meat, eating less, running sales, prefer house brands, cook more, skip meals.
Adaptation will obviously have to continue.
The problem is that it’s getting harder and harder to stretch your budget. It is not for nothing that the use of food banks has exploded. They also welcome more and more families where both parents work.
The brutal food inflation that is hitting Canada separates consumers into two groups, notes Sylvain Charlebois. “There are 75% of the population who manage inflation as best they can, by changing their habits. And there is the other 25% whose quality of life has changed. It’s a silent 25% that suffers and that worries us a lot. »
We must not forget that the impacts of the increase in the price of the grocery basket are not only economic. It also causes a lot of anxiety and stress. A survey conducted by Léger for Centraide this fall revealed that 42% of Quebecers experience financial anxiety at a moderate, severe or extreme level. After the pandemic, which has put our collective sanity to the test, inflation is adding its grain of salt. A big bean.
No doubt we will have to get used to going through “much more violent cycles in the coming years”, believes Sylvain Charlebois. If only because of climate change. But between two storms, we should see normal levels of inflation – between 1.5 and 2.5% – in the not so distant horizon.
“If I compared our food storm to a marathon, I would say that we have reached the famous wall that runners hit at 32e kilometer. After the Holidays, we will overtake it and there, we will see the light at the end of the tunnel. »
Let’s just hope we’re not running a 100 kilometer ultramarathon without knowing it.