Like a snake biting its own tail, China finds itself trapped in its own zero COVID-19 strategy. The population can no longer take coercive health measures, but lifting them could lead to a surge of deaths and the collapse of the health system.
A popular movement on a scale not seen in decades shook several Chinese cities over the weekend. The fatigue of the population in the face of the strict restrictions still imposed to prevent COVID-19 seems to have taken the authorities by surprise.
On Tuesday, however, the Chinese government maintained a hard line on the importance of its “zero COVID-19” policy, which involves systematic testing, tracing and strict local lockdowns.
On Tuesday, a heavy police presence in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai limited further protests. In parallel, the government announced a special working group for the vaccination of the elderly, according to Agence France-Presse.
Why is China still using zero COVID-19 approach?
From a political point of view, it is a question of pride, believes Kimberley Manning, professor of political science at Concordia University, specialist in the Chinese revolution. “Chinese authorities were able to avert so much chaos and deaths at the start of the pandemic [avec l’approche zéro COVID-19] it was a success, she says. During this time, they were widely critical of the West, the United States in particular. »
However, the approach stopped working when the highly contagious Omicron variant arrived, as data from the World Health Organization show. While the majority of countries have changed their strategy to adapt to this new reality, China is the latest major economy to maintain a hard line. She is currently dealing with a record number of infections.
Is the reopening of China possible?
A perverse effect of the Chinese strategy is that the population felt protected from the disease.
“The zero COVID-19 policy has diminished the will [de la population] to get vaccinated, because the government hammered home the fact that it was going to eradicate the virus so much that people didn’t see the need to [relever la manche] observes Pascale Massot, professor of political science at the University of Ottawa.
This is particularly true for the elderly and vulnerable population, among whom vaccine hesitation is greater, recalled the Bloomberg press agency last July.
However, according to Nathalie Grandvaux, biochemist at the University of Montreal, “the zero COVID strategy was doomed to failure from the moment we knew that vaccines do not protect 100% against infections or transmission”.
PHOTO THOMAS PETER, REUTERS
Beijing police are heading to the scene of a protest on Tuesday.
A paradox of Chinese policy is that while imposing draconian containment measures on its population, the authorities have never opted for compulsory vaccination. Add to this the lower effectiveness of vaccines made in China, compared to those with messenger RNA, recalls Mme Grandvaux.
Result: the population is particularly vulnerable to infections. “From the moment an infection arrives, it takes on a scale which shows that the population does not have very strong protection, observes Ms.me Grandvaux. So, from the moment China opens up, there will be a wave of deaths. »
A wave that could well overload the health system.
“The health system in China is not at all as developed as that of neighboring countries, such as Korea or even Hong Kong, remarks Pascale Massot. It is certain that if the government decided to reopen even a little bit, there would be enormous public health challenges. »
Are the protests really out of the ordinary?
This protest movement is different from those of recent years because it affects all of China and directly attacks the central government, according to Pascale Massot.
“The regime has lost the support of the population,” she sums up. Until recently, people were quite aligned with the government’s discourse. They felt the policy made sense and saved lives. There, that changes, she continues. People are pissed off. »
Still, it would be surprising if the Chinese government changed its rhetoric on its zero COVID-19 approach in the short term, adds the expert, who has also worked on Canada’s new Indo-Pacific strategy. “In the medium and long term, the government will have to find a way out, but in the immediate term, I do not expect major political changes, but a lot of control, police presence and censorship. »
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- 1.28 billion
- Number of fully immunized people in China
source: World Health Organization
- 30 192
- Number of deaths from COVID-19 in China since the start of the pandemic
source: World Health Organization