The Canadian | Don’t give to give anymore

The statistics compiled internally by the Canadiens are a closely guarded secret. Normal, you will say, since the teams do not want to publicize the precise evaluation that they make of their players.

Martin St-Louis, however, revealed Monday that in the last three games his team ranked fifth in the league in quality scoring chances obtained.

Advancing this data from memory, the head coach of the Canadiens added that “if it’s not the right statistic, I’m going to blame Chris Boucher”, a nod to the director of the Habs’ advanced statistics analysis department. .

The free Natural Stat Trick (NST), oft-quoted in the media, arrives at the same calculation for the odds of five to five. But behind this offensive success hides a fault, otherwise less glorious. Since November 15, during the same three-game window, the Canadiens have also ranked 21^e rank for scoring chances given at five to five, according to NST, and at 30^e for goals awarded.

The mention “five against five” is not insignificant, because it ignores overtime and special teams. Exactly, the Montreal penalty kill squad is doing well these days. At even strength, however, it’s much more complicated: 12 of the last 14 goals against by the Canadian have been in these circumstances.

Jake Allen and Samuel Montembeault were not at the top of their game, it is true: NST, again, calculates that they allowed 4.6 goals “too many” compared to the quality of the shots received. Less severe, the calculations for Evolving Hockey and Money Puck come in at 3 and 4, respectively. The trend is nevertheless clear.

Far from blaming their goalkeepers, on the contrary, the players questioned in the locker room on Monday spoke rather of a structural problem. A video session had been devoted to it the same morning, as well as part of the subsequent training session.

“There are flaws in our five-man game,” Brendan Gallagher said. We don’t support each other well. We want to play aggressively, that our attackers are in front of the opposing players and that our defenders support the attack, but we have to protect ourselves better. It gives excess numbers and breakaways, and we put our goalkeepers in difficult situations. »

“Group Decision”

The conclusion is unanimous: the attack works, and that’s good. All situations combined, the 19 goals scored in the last five games put the Canadian tied for 10^e circuit level.

“Was it at the cost of being less good defensively? Maybe,” said St-Louis.

“And are we able to stay there offensively while tightening our defensive game? Yes, I think we can. It is a group decision,” he added.

Some agree: it is the counter-attack that hurts the Habs the most. “It’s not like they’re starting from their goal line and beating us all over the ice,” St-Louis said.

And to conclude: “We do not manage the danger as much as I would like. »

Jordan Harris is saddened, for his part, by a lack of consistency. “Some games, we are well organized defensively, he analyzed. In general, we must tighten our folds and better manage the puck so as not to give too many. It’s a long season, sometimes you play looser when you’re tired. »

Nick Suzuki comes to the same conclusion. “I think we were good defensively at five against five at the start of the season, but we slipped in that department,” he said. We have to trust our system and not cheat in attack. We just talked about that today. »

There is a certain paradox in this assertion, as the first 10 games of the campaign have been used for all sorts of experimentation on the attacking trios. However, the combinations changed very little over the next eight games. Would more stability in the workforce have contributed to a certain relaxation?

“I don’t think the stability is in question,” Suzuki replied. It’s more of a state of mind. We need to spend less time in our zone. Regarding my threesome [avec Cole Caufield et Kirby Dach], I preach that the better you do on defense, the more you can get out with the puck and generate offense. I think Martin St-Louis sees things like that too. »

The whole team will have the opportunity to test those thoughts against the Buffalo Sabers on Tuesday night. Even if the latter are currently experiencing miserable days, they had fun against the Canadian last season by scoring 14 goals in 4 games.

Armia better, Hoffman waiting

Away from the game since November 12 due to an “upper body” injury, Joel Armia, for the first time, joined his teammates in training Monday morning. However, he was wearing a sweater excluding him from contact. The team did not provide an update on his rehabilitation. He’s not expected to face the Sabers on Tuesday. Mike Hoffman, for his part, has undergone a medical evaluation, the results of which have not yet been disclosed. The forward suffered a “lower body” injury last Saturday against the Philadelphia Flyers and did not play in the third period.