The worst of inflation is over, said Wednesday the Minister of Finance, Eric Girard, who was to deploy a new component of the anti-inflation shield promised by the CAQ during the election campaign.
Commenting on the data published earlier in the day showing annual inflation stable at 6.9% in October, Mr. Girard was very optimistic: “What we see is good news. The peak of inflation is behind us and what we see, what we can anticipate, is that inflation will continue to decline. »
There is, he says, consensus among economists on this issue.
Recession in sight?
As for the assertions that there is a 50% risk of recession, Minister Girard wanted to put these predictions in context, pointing out that the economy is in the midst of a slowdown that puts it at the statistical limit of a recession, which is defined by two consecutive quarters of negative growth: “For a period of 12 months — the last six months of 2022 and the first six months of 2023 — growth is around 0.0% and in this sense […] it is possible that we will have slightly negative or slightly positive quarters, because it will oscillate around zero%. »
For Mr. Girard, it is hardly important to assess the risk of recession at 50%. What is important is that there is “100% probability that growth will be weaker in 2023 than in 2022. What we see is a pronounced economic slowdown that has begun at the end of 2022 and which will continue in 2023.
Price capping
But if the peak of inflation is behind us, the rate of 6.9% is unsustainable for citizens, estimates the Legault government, which announced on Wednesday the imposition of a 3% ceiling on the indexation of many tariffs. of government services. “Normally, the indexation would have been around 6.4%,” argued Mr. Girard.
The cap applies to tariffs whose indexation was planned from 1er January, including driver’s licenses, registration, the contribution paid in CHSLDs and fees for a private or semi-private room in the hospital.
The difference between the 3% ceiling and a 6.4% indexation in the waters will result in a shortfall of around 330 million over four years, said Mr. Girard, who estimates that he is thus doing two things with one stone. blows: “It’s really a good measure because on the one hand, we help Quebecers and on the other hand it lowers inflation. »
Other caps at 3% are planned for the tariffs which must be indexed by next June 30. One of them is already known since the Legault government has already announced its intention to impose this cap on Hydro-Québec’s electricity rates.
A bill must be tabled to this effect in the coming weeks. Minister Girard has planned to maintain this ceiling for four years, but if inflation drops below 3%, indexing will follow the downward movement.
This measure is in addition to the payment of lump sums that Quebec has planned to pay to taxpayers earning less than $100,000 by the end of the year.
The amounts will be $600 for those with a net income of less than $50,000 and $400 for those with a net income between $50,000 and $100,000.
In the latter case, the expenditure is around 3.5 billion and will affect some 6.5 million taxpayers.