Every Wednesday, our parliamentary correspondent in Ottawa Marie Vastel analyzes a federal political issue to help you better understand it.
Justin Trudeau will have had to settle for a short informal discussion with the Chinese president, on the sidelines of the G20. A sign that the change in tone of his government towards China displeases Beijing, and that he will do nothing to warm the already almost icy relations between the two countries. This new approach to Canada, however, was long overdue among experts and is timely, as Justin Trudeau finds himself accused of having failed to respond to the multiplication of incidents of Chinese interference in the country.
On a tour of Asia to participate in three international summits, Prime Minister Trudeau accosted Xi Jinping for about ten minutes on Tuesday. In particular, he would have raised his “serious concerns surrounding interference activities in Canada”, according to the minutes of his own office.
The entourage of Mr. Trudeau refused to specify if he demanded a formal meeting with that of President Xi and if the latter had chosen to shun the Canadians. Xi Jinping, on the other hand, took the time to meet with his American, French and Australian counterparts.
Former Canadian Ambassador to China Guy Saint-Jacques doubts that the Chinese leader “wants to reward Mr. Trudeau”. Its Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mélanie Joly, has just delivered a speech accusing China of increasingly upsetting the world order and warning that Canada will stand up to it. Last month, Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland denounced hostile authoritarian regimes. China is “a revanchist and immature power”, notes Guy Saint-Jacques.
But this change in tone could nevertheless pay off, according to the former diplomat. “The only language China understands is firmness. And she understands it better, moreover, if one is in good company. This means that Mr. Saint-Jacques sees favorably Ottawa’s desire to diversify its strategic and commercial alliances with China’s neighbours.
Former international journalist Jean-François Lépine, who was Quebec’s representative in Beijing, also notes that “the Chinese have great respect for people who stand up”.
The Canadian government no longer had much choice. Experts and diplomats have been calling on Ottawa to raise its voice against China for years. In recent weeks, their fears have come to light. Beijing reportedly funded 11 Liberal Party and Conservative Party candidacies in the 2019 election, the English-language network Global has revealed. The government repeats that the outcome of the ballot was not altered. The RCMP, for its part, arrested a Hydro-Quebec employee and accused him on Monday of having obtained industrial secrets in order to benefit China. Three years ago, two Chinese scientists were fired from the National Microbiology Laboratory in Winnipeg.
The only language China understands is firmness
Added to all this was the case of the two Michaels, detained in China in retaliation for the arrest of Huawei’s financial director, and the Chinese trade sanctions that accompanied this saga.
“We will challenge China when we have to. We will cooperate with China when we have to, ”warns Mélanie Joly now. His recent speech was almost modeled, at times, on that delivered by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken six months earlier.
Limited retaliation
The Chinese response was instantaneous. The embassy in Ottawa has once again denounced “serious interference in the internal affairs of China” and warned that it “strongly opposes” it. China is Canada’s second largest trading partner ($28.8 billion in Canadian exports in 2021, $81 billion in Chinese imports). Japan, South Korea and India, to whom Ottawa wants to turn, are far behind.
This discontent from China will certainly lead to retaliation, but these will remain limited, according to experts. Because China cannot do without the Canadian market and products, particularly in the agri-food sector, says Guy Saint-Jacques.
The Trudeau government’s nuanced approach — to oppose when necessary, but to maintain dialogue when possible — will also help to alleviate Beijing’s discontent, according to political scientist Dominique Caouette. Just like the fact that Canada is getting closer to neighbors of China, which Beijing cannot do without either to support its growth, explains Mr. Caouette, from the Center for Asian Studies at the University of Montreal.
China will also have learned lessons from the fate reserved by the majority of countries for Russia, believes Jean-François Lépine. “The more we reaffirm our solidarity, the more we favor contact with people who respect the rules [internationales] around us, the more China will have to realize that this attitude is serious and that it must be taken into account. »
Expected concrete actions
However, the evolution of political discourse will now have to be accompanied by a diplomatic and commercial shift in the region. And this one will take time, experts warn.
“This awakening in Ottawa is a very late awakening,” observes Loïc Tassé, a specialist in Chinese issues at the University of Montreal.
Justin Trudeau announced a first series of economic measures worth one billion dollars, on the sidelines of his international meetings in Asia. Sending an increased military presence, however, will also require a lot of money and many years, as the Canadian army will take time to acquire new fighter planes and ships.
As for the wish to conclude commercial agreements with new partners, Mr. Tassé reminds that many of them have protectionist measures which do not necessarily come from governments and which are therefore more complicated to undo. “On paper, they are right to want to diversify economic ties. But it is a region that is much more complex than one might think at first sight. »
Ottawa’s paradigm shift in the face of China may reassure the experts; it will be necessary to see if its implementation pleases them just as much. And especially if the government manages to complete it more quickly than it will have taken to develop it.