We are 8,000,000,000 | The Press

Eight billion. This is the number of humans that there will be on the planet, from this Tuesday, according to forecasts by the United Nations (UN). And the growth of the world’s population continues to accelerate.

Alice Girard-Bosse
The Press

To live longer

“It is a threshold never reached and we reach it relatively quickly if we think of the moment when we reached 7 billion [31 octobre 2011] says Nadine Ouellette, professor in the demography department at the Université de Montréal. For more than 200 years, the Earth has experienced very significant population growth due in part to declining mortality rates. “We have a lot fewer children dying than before and we live longer, thanks to medical innovations,” summarizes Richard Marcoux, professor in the sociology department at Laval University and director of the Demographic and Statistical Observatory of the French-speaking space.

Growth continues

This growth in world population is not about to slow down. Indeed, the Earth could reach approximately 8.5 billion inhabitants in 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050 and 10.4 billion in 2100. Is this rapid growth harmful to our planet? “It’s not so much population growth that is the problem as consumption patterns and our lifestyles,” replies Mr. Marcoux. “Population growth will be harmful if we continue to be polluters and space eaters,” he adds.

Inequitable growth

Not all countries are seeing population growth. “There are continents, like Europe, where the population is stagnating and where we are seeing an aging population,” says Marcoux.

In North America, population growth continues thanks to international immigration. “We kind of benefit from population growth in other countries, because if we closed the borders completely, we would have an accelerated population ageing,” he says.

Conversely, some countries are seeing rapid growth. Indeed, more than half of the projected increase in the world’s population until 2050 will be concentrated in just eight countries: Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, Democratic Republic of Congo and Tanzania.

Women live longer

All over the world, women live longer than men. And that’s usually the case at all stages of life, says Ms.^me Ouellette. “In some cases, the survival advantage of women is eroding,” says the demographer. This is particularly the case in countries where the level of maternal mortality is very high or in countries where young girls do not have the same health care or the same food as little boys, she gives as examples. The gap between men and women varies from country to country, ranging from 7 years in Latin America and the Caribbean to 2.9 years in Australia and New Zealand. This difference also varies over time. “In Quebec, in the 1920s, the difference in life expectancy was about two years in favor of women,” she says. The gap widened to 7.5 years in the late 1970s. she. Since the 1980s, this gap has narrowed.

Fertility decreases

For decades, fertility among women has been steadily declining. According to UN forecasts, it is expected to decline further to 2.1 births per woman in 2050.

This decrease is explained above all by a change in the role of children, observes Mr. Marcoux. “Before, a child assured us of aging in good conditions. This was particularly the case in rural areas, where a child was an extra arm in the field. Today, children become an expense and no longer an income,” he says.

Fertility, however, varies greatly across continents. “In Africa, population growth is very high and the desire for children is very high, with women wanting five or six children,” says Mr. Marcoux. For families without social security schemes, a child can act as a “social safety net”, he adds.

Asia at the top

More than half of the world’s population (55%) is found in Asia. China and India account for most of it. Currently, these two countries have over 1.4 billion people each. India will take a big step in 2023 by overtaking China as the most populous country in the world.