(Moscow) The Ukrainian authorities are cautious after the announcement by Russia of the withdrawal of its forces from Kherson, expecting to have to continue to fight to conquer this regional capital taken by Moscow at the start of its offensive.
Updated at 12:27 a.m.
Nearly nine months into the invasion, the conflict has killed more than 100,000 soldiers on each side, and a military victory is “probably” impossible for either side, added US Chief of Staff General Mark Milley.
The withdrawal of Kherson sounds like a stinging setback for Moscow, already forced to abandon the Kharkiv region (northeast) in September. It also intervenes when Vladimir Putin had precisely ordered on September 21 the mobilization of some 300,000 reservists to consolidate the Russian lines.
“Proceed with the withdrawal of troops,” ordered Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu during a meeting with the commander of Russian operations in Ukraine, General Sergei Surovikin, who had just recommended this “not at all easy” decision to take.
“This is proof that they have real problems, Russia, the Russian army,” US President Joe Biden said on Wednesday.
The symbol is all the stronger since Kherson, 280,000 inhabitants before the conflict, is the only regional capital conquered by Russian forces at the start of their offensive in Ukraine.
It is also one of the four areas of Ukraine which Mr. Putin claimed for annexation by Moscow six weeks ago. The Russian president celebrated these annexations during a concert in Red Square, under banners proclaiming that Russia would be present there “forever”.
Kyiv wary
But the announcement of the Russian withdrawal was greeted with caution by Kyiv, which suspects Moscow of wanting to draw its forces into a difficult urban battle in Kherson.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Wednesday evening that his country was reacting with “extreme caution” to the announcement of the Russian withdrawal.
“The enemy does not give us a gift, does not show a ‘goodwill gesture’, we must win everything,” Zelensky said in his daily message to Ukrainians. “We must therefore exercise extreme caution, without emotion, without taking unnecessary risks, in order to liberate all of our land with as minimal losses as possible.”
“We see no sign that Russia is leaving Kherson without a fight. A part of the Russian (troops) is maintained in the city”, had previously declared an adviser to the Ukrainian presidency, Mykhaïlo Podoliak.
“They are just trying to get out of a difficult situation,” Natalia Gumeniuk, spokeswoman for the Ukrainian army’s southern command, told AFP.
“The fact that they so deliberately announced that they were crossing to the left bank (of the Dnieper River) did not surprise anyone. But we know we will still have to fight,” she added, saying the battle for Kherson was not over.
“It is impossible to believe the words of the Russians. With them you always have to be ready for anything,” said Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar.
“I think they’re up to something. […], maybe some kind of trap. I don’t think they will surrender,” said Kyiv resident Serguii Filonchouk, interviewed by AFP.
Concretely, Mr. Shoigu ordered the Russian fighters to withdraw from the western bank of the Dnieper, where Kherson is located, to establish a line of defense on the eastern bank of this river which represents a natural obstacle.
The Kremlin postponed this humiliating withdrawal as long as possible, but the situation had become increasingly difficult with a Ukrainian army targeting Russian supply lines using modern Western-delivered weaponry.
The Kherson region is all the more strategic as its territory borders Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula annexed by Moscow in 2014.
General Surovikin on Wednesday justified the withdrawal by his desire to protect the lives of Russian soldiers.
Mr. Putin did not comment on this withdrawal, but people close to the Kremlin, such as the founder of the paramilitary group Wagner, Evgeny Prigojine, and the Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, defended the measure.
“Between making an absurd sacrifice and saving the lives of the soldiers, General Surovikin made a difficult but fair choice,” said Mr. Kadyrov, usually considered along with Yevgeny Prigozhin as a supporter of the hardest line.
Displaced populations
Since the annexation announced at the end of September, Moscow considers Kherson as part of the national territory.
However, Mr. Putin warned that Russia would defend “by all means” what it considers to be its territory, other senior Russian officials explicitly brandishing a possible recourse to nuclear weapons.
General Sourovikine also announced on Wednesday that the occupation authorities had carried out in recent weeks the “evacuation” of 115,000 people from the right bank to the left bank of the Dnieper.
Ukraine denounced these displacements of population, qualifying them as “deportation”.
Russia likely committed “crimes against humanity” by forcibly transferring to its territory or to areas under the control of pro-Russian separatists Ukrainian civilians from areas its troops occupied in Ukraine, Amnesty International accused Thursday. .
“Children have been separated from their families […] in violation of international humanitarian law”, denounced the NGO.
As the Russian offensive soon enters its ninth month, the West has continued to reaffirm its military, logistical and financial support for Kyiv.
The European Commission on Wednesday proposed to the twenty-seven member countries to grant Ukraine aid of 18 billion euros for 2023, in the form of loans.
But the top US military official at the same time warned that military victory was likely impossible for both Kyiv and Moscow.
“There are well over 100,000 Russian soldiers killed and wounded,” said General Mark Milley, speaking to the New York Economic Club. “Same thing probably on the Ukrainian side,” he added.
“There must be a mutual recognition that military victory is probably not, in the proper sense of the word, attainable by military means, and therefore one must look to other means,” General Milley added. , according to whom there is “a window of opportunity for negotiation”.