Here again is the idea of dissolution. An article from JDD, Sunday November 6, affirms that Emmanuel Macron is actively preparing to dissolve the National Assembly. According to the weekly, on the side of the majority, a “protocol of dissolution”with “detailed retroplanning” stages of the operation, is already drafted. According to information from franceinfo, the subject of the dissolution was indeed discussed on the evening of November 3, during an executive office of the Renaissance party (ex-LREM), but “all this is a tad oversold”assures a minister.
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However, the hypothesis does not seem far-fetched in a context of relative majority at the Palais Bourbon, with a government forced to pass its texts with great blows of 49.3 and under the threat of a possible motion of censure from LR. This is also the fourth time that the threat has been dropped by the executive and his entourage in less than two months. First at the end of September, via remarks by Emmanuel Macron reported to the press with the blessing of the Elysée. Then publicly on France 2, on October 26, when the Head of State recalls that Article 12 of the Constitution is one “instruments in the hands of the president”. Finally, before the article JDDthe Prime Minister, Elisabeth Borne, supports the idea in the Portuguese daily public : “Returning to the polls can be a path.”
In view of the demining operation carried out by the various ministers in recent days, the dissolution does not seem imminent. “I don’t believe it at all at this stage, I think it would be madness”confides a minister to franceinfo. “I think there is no presidential desireadds another member of the government. The polls show that the balance of power does not change.” A recent Ifop survey shows that the far right would currently be the winner in the event of dissolution.
“If we dissolve, what does that lead to? We still won’t have a majority and a progression of the RN.”
A Renaissance deputyat franceinfo
But then, what is the purpose of these regular reminders? “This helps prepare public opinion, so that if it happens, it doesn’t appear as a sudden decision, but a prepared, thoughtful act. So they sow small pebbles”, analyzes political scientist Bruno Cautrès, researcher at Cevipof. Many in the presidential camp think that the Assembly will not last until 2022 and that we must therefore prepare.
“Me, I believe in the dissolution, but in a year. There, it’s much too early”confides a leader of the majority. “When Gérard Larcher [président du Sénat] tells us in The Parisian that LR will not hesitate to initiate a motion of censure, we have to be ready”believes Loïc Signor, spokesperson for Renaissance, who confirms the existence of a retroplanning and work by his party on “legal and financial considerations”. “With a dissolution, the timetable is extremely short, so it is normal to prepare”he adds.
For Bruno Cautre, this strategy of small signals sent at regular intervals also puts pressure on Les Républicains. On the one hand, Emmanuel Macron reaches out to the right and raises the possibility of a “alliance”in line with “political agreement” claimed by Nicolas Sarkozy. On the other, the President of the Republic does not hesitate to anticipate the worst. “LR is certainly the group that has the most to lose in the event of dissolution. So the executive says: ‘If you do not support the plans of the government, here is where we are going to go'”believes the political scientist.
Not sure that this is likely to appease the LR deputies. “They try to intimidate us, to rush us. But when I’m threatened, it makes me want to fight back”warns MP LR Julien Dive. “We stay away from these political postures”, assures MP Annie Genevard, acting president of LR. But for LR Nicolas Forissier, the right should be a little more attentive. “This makes it possible to put Les Républicains before their responsibilities, believes the deputy of Indre. We will have to cut the line one day, because LR has the key to allow political stabilization. We have a majority in the Senate and a pivotal group in the Assembly.”
“No one has an interest in a dissolution today, so I plead for us to find our culture of government.”
Nicolas Forissier, deputy LRat franceinfo
The former Secretary of State remains in the minority within his group, even if he considers that “10 to 15 LR deputies” share his point of view, “with more or less intensity”. The majority of LRs therefore want to remain in firm opposition and obtain progress text by text. “Either Macron assumes the right turn and we can work with him, or he decides not to decide. But for the moment, we especially have the impression that the majority is fracturing faster than expected”judges an LR executive.
“For example, the Ministry of the Interior promised us mountains and wonders on the immigration law, and there, we feel that it is going off the rails, pursues the same chosen one. Macron forces Darmanin to ‘dussoptise’ his text [du nom du ministre du Travail, Olivier Dussopt]making provision for adjustments.” The government already senses the danger in this bill. “We do ‘at the same time’, but it will allow LR to differentiate itself”regrets a minister.
The LR deputies believe that the threat of a return to the voters is also not addressed only to their group. “JI believe it serves more to put the word ‘dissolution’ in the minds of all elected officials, including the majority. Macron wants to send a message: ‘it’s me or chaos'”, believes Annie Genevard. Several deputies of the majority have effectively expressed in recent weeks, through amendments, desires for independence. “It is undoubtedly a message for the majority, in mode: ‘There is a boss who can press the button when he wants, so you have to be there to vote on the texts'”recognizes a Renaissance deputy.
But the blackmail at the dissolution expressed for the umpteenth time in the JDD has a knack for annoying parliamentarians, when compromises manage to be found, in particular with the senatorial right, on the bill aimed at developing renewable energies. “When we show that we can work together in the Senate, all of this is very counterproductive”annoyed a leader of the majority. “All of this is nonsense. It’s a bluff. But hey, I don’t find it very appropriate”adds a framework of the majority.
“It is not likely to mobilize the deputies in the hemicycle. The more there are rumors of this kind, the more the parliamentarians say to themselves that they must spend time in the constituency.”
A framework of the majorityat franceinfo
“The point on the dissolution will come back every six months like an Arlesian”warned Stéphane Séjourné, boss of Renaissance, during an intergroup meeting of the majority. “Given the organization of the work, your mobilization and the texts, there is not much to fear on the subject.” But political scientist Bruno Cautrès warns that when it comes to political communication, there are “the effect of self-fulfilling prophecy” : “By dint of repeating something, it ends up happening. When you keep talking about a possibility, you create the conditions for its realization.”
The dissolution scenario is now well established in everyone’s mind. Few deputies imagine the 16th legislature coming to an end. “With a single 49.3 per parliamentary session [hors textes budgétaires]it seems complicated to tell ourselves that we are going to hold on like this for another four and a half years”, admits LR MP Annie Genevard.