The first results of the American mid-term elections began to fall on Tuesday, at the start of an evening which promised to be long and tense as it was decisive for the political future of Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
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Polling places have closed on part of the east coast of the United States. But it will be necessary to wait hours, even several days, warned the authorities, to determine the color of the next Congress in Washington.
Handicapped by record inflation, the 79-year-old Democratic president risks losing control of the House of Representatives and the Senate during these midterm elections traditionally unfavorable to the ruling party, and seeing his action paralyzed for the next two years.
His predecessor Donald Trump, who vigorously supported a large number of Republican candidates, is banking on their success to launch himself under the best auspices in the 2024 presidential race.
At his last meeting, he promised “a very big announcement” on November 15.
Omnipresent in the campaign, Donald Trump also seems to want to pull the rug out from under the feet of potential Republican rivals, like Ron DeSantis, rising star of the party, largely re-elected as governor of Florida on Tuesday evening, according to American media.
In the meantime, “I think we’re going to have a very good night,” predicted Donald Trump as he left a polling station in Florida. In this southern state, the Republicans were also comforted by the re-election of Senator Marco Rubio against Democrat Val Demings, for whom Joe Biden had come to campaign.
The Democrats, however, have already snatched two governorships from the Republicans: in Maryland and Massachusetts, where Maura Healey will be the first lesbian to head a state.
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“Civilized”
Sign of the abrasive climate in which this election was held: Donald Trump replayed in parallel the score that has been his since his defeat in 2020, stoking doubts about the regularity of voting operations. Noting that voting machines malfunctioned in a crowded Arizona precinct, he posted on his Truth Social platform: “There are a lot of things wrong.”
Local authorities have acknowledged the problem, but assured that voters have other options to vote in this ballot which covers the entire House of Representatives, a third of the Senate, many local elected positions and many referendums .
Despite their assurances, these very localized hiccups heightened concerns.
During the campaign, “there was a lot of tension and misinformation”, regretted Robin Ghirdar, a 61-year-old doctor who came to vote Democratic in Pennsylvania, lamenting that “the search for truth and compromise has disappeared in the battle. »
In fact, each camp dramatized the stakes of the ballot: the Democrats posed as defenders of democracy and the right to abortion against Republicans deemed “extremists”; the conservatives have stood as guarantors of order in the face of a so-called “lax and radical” left on security and immigration.
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“A good family’s father”
Inflation – more than 8.2% over one year – however crushed all other subjects.
Until the end, Joe Biden sought to defend his economic record, presenting himself as “the president of the middle class”, who canceled student debt and invested in infrastructure. But his efforts do not seem to have borne fruit.
According to opinion polls, the Republican opposition should take at least 10 to 25 seats in the lower house – more than enough to be in the majority there. Pollsters are more mixed about the fate of the Senate, with nevertheless an advantage for the Republicans.
Deprived of his majority, the president would above all have veto power, and the Republicans have made it known that they will not spare it. In particular, they plan to launch investigations in the House into the affairs of his son Hunter and some of his ministers.
Breathtaking duels
Concretely, the midterm elections are being played out in a handful of key states – the same ones that were already at the heart of the 2020 presidential election.
All the spotlights are in particular on Pennsylvania, a former bastion of the steel industry, where the Republican multimillionaire surgeon Mehmet Oz, dubbed by Donald Trump, faces the Democratic colossus John Fetterman for the most disputed post in the Senate.
Because on this seat very possibly depends the balance of powers of this upper chamber, with immense powers.
Georgia, Arizona, Ohio, Nevada, Wisconsin and North Carolina are also the scene of intense struggles, where Democrats everywhere are opposed to candidates supported by Donald Trump, who swear absolute loyalty to the former president.
In total, nearly 17 billion dollars will have been spent for these midterm elections, according to the Opensecrets site, a record.