At first glance, this question may seem far-fetched: New York is a state where Democratic voters outnumber Republican voters twice. New Yorkers have voted continuously for the Democratic presidential candidate since the late 1980s. And Democrats have won every statewide election for 20 years.
Posted at 2:00 p.m.
And yet.
The gubernatorial election: tighter than expected?
Governor since 2021, Democrat Kathy Hochul was an early favorite for the 2022 election. But the lead she held over her Republican opponent, Lee Zeldin, has shrunk by half since last month.
Throughout the campaign, Mr. Zeldin, a federal representative supported by Donald Trump, has emphasized the issues of inflation and crime. Mme Hochul, she does not miss an opportunity to recall that Mr. Zeldin refused to certify the result of the last presidential election and that he fiercely opposes the right to abortion. In a state where Donald Trump is wildly unpopular and the vast majority of residents are pro-choice, why isn’t that enough to make Mr. Zeldin a persona non grata candidate?
Abortion: an issue that is not one?
The right to abortion is certainly an issue that has mobilized many Democratic and independent voters since the judgment Dobbs of the Supreme Court. But according to a Quinnipiac poll released in October, only 6% of New York voters consider abortion the most important issue, far behind crime (28%) and inflation (20%). And in an Emerson poll released last week, abortion is only the fourth most important issue.
Paradoxically, this issue may not have the mobilizing effect expected by the Democrats, because the right to abortion is well protected in this state. According to the Guttmacher Institute and the group Planned Parenthood, New York is one of the states offering the most protection for the right to abortion. And Mr. Zeldin tries to neutralize this issue by saying he does not want to touch it if he is elected governor.
The arrival of reinforcements
This race is causing so much concern among Democrats that we have recently had visits from several party leaders: Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Bill and Hillary Clinton. Governors popular with the Republican electorate, Ron DeSantis of Florida and Glenn Youngkin of Virginia, also came to campaign for Mr. Zeldin. On the other hand, Donald Trump did not interfere in the campaign beyond the announcement of his support for Mr. Zeldin. All of this indicates that both sides perceive a hotly contested struggle.
The Republicans also hope to win between 6 and 11 seats (out of 26) in Congress. How can they expect such a harvest when the Democrats had endorsed a “gerrymander” of the electoral map with a partisan flavor? In fact, the New York Court of Appeals struck down this Democratic redistricting and replaced it with a nonpartisan expert one that would allow Republicans to pick up up to seven more seats than under the Democratic plan. A difference that could be decisive for the control of the majority in Congress.
Don’t Forget Other State Races
As every two years, all the seats in the state legislature are at stake. Barring a Republican tidal wave, the Democrats will preserve their majority in each of the two chambers. But will they be able to maintain their qualified two-thirds majorities? This question would take on particular importance if Mr. Zeldin were to become the next governor, because this supermajority in each house is necessary to override the veto which he would not hesitate to employ.
Outgoing New York Attorney General Democrat Letitia James is favorite to win another term. But his lead has dwindled somewhat as Republican candidate Michael Henry continues to hammer home the issues of crime and issues surrounding Democratic bail reform for some people charged with misdemeanor or felony charges. A shock defeat of Mme James would have a major impact on investigations of former President Donald Trump. In return, a decisive victory for Mme James could set the stage for a future run for a higher position like governor or senator.
How is New York…
No state is immune to the dynamics currently favorable to the Republicans: an inflation that does not seem to want to fade and a relatively unpopular Democratic president. It is doubtful that a red wave is breaking in New York because of the numerical advantage that the Democrats possess.
But if ever a red wave were to appear… To use Frank Sinatra’s famous song, if on the morning of November 9 we see that the Republicans have succeeded in getting there in New York, that will mean that they will have got there. everywhere else.
* Antoine Yoshinaka teaches American politics and quantitative methods. His research focuses on political institutions, elections and political parties in the United States. He is also an associate researcher at the Observatory on the United States of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair.