Despite the economic slowdown, the labor market is still showing remarkable strength in Canada. While economists expected a mere 10,000 jobs to be added in October, there were 108,000 more, according to Statistics Canada.
Updated yesterday at 4:47 p.m.
In October, the unemployment rate remained unchanged in the country, at 5.2%, and it fell by 0.3% in Quebec to settle at 4.1%, the lowest rate among the Canadian provinces.
The increase in employment is mainly observed in the private sector, where the total number of employees increased for the first time since last March. Job creation was strongest in Ontario and Quebec.
In October, Quebec had 28,000 more jobs than the previous month, mostly full-time jobs. Several sectors have hired, such as construction, finance and insurance, and even real estate services, which are affected by the rise in interest rates.
The Montreal region accounts for most of the new jobs, with 23,000 more jobs and an unemployment rate down to 4.2%.
The increase in employment in October reverses the declines observed since May, observes Statistics Canada. It could make the Bank of Canada’s fight against inflation harder and longer, according to several observers.
“In a context where the Bank of Canada is trying to cool the economy to lower inflation, the October employment report raises eyebrows,” commented economists Matthieu Arseneau and Alexandra Ducharme, from the National Bank.
“There is no doubt that the report of [vendredi] morning will reinforce the central bank’s view on the need for further rate hikes,” they say.
October’s portrait of the labor market “does not suggest the start of a recession in the last quarter of 2022”, according to the National Bank.
“It’s hard to find signs of a downturn in the Canadian labor market in the October data,” said Desjardins economist Marc Desormeaux. He points out that “job creation is widespread in all regions and in all sectors of activity and is concentrated in full-time work”.
Rising wages
A sign that the job market remains tight, wages continue to rise, says Statistics Canada. In October, the average hourly wage was $31.94, up 5.6% from a year earlier.
Average wages are up more than 5% for five consecutive months, but they have not caught up with inflation, which stood at 6.9% in September.
It should come as no surprise, then, that more Canadians are finding it difficult to meet their basic needs. This proportion is now 35%, compared to 20% two years ago, in October 2020.
Lack of manpower in catering
Employment in the accommodation and food services sector was up 18,000 in October. This is the first increase in this sector since May. This sector is the one with the highest vacancy rate.
According to the most recent Statistics Canada survey, there were 958,500 job vacancies in August, including 136,100 in the accommodation and food services sector and 119,000 in the retail trade sector.
It is in Quebec and British Columbia that the job vacancy rates, all sectors combined, are the highest in Canada.
Hybrid work takes hold
In October, almost two million Canadians, or 1 in 10 workers, were working in hybrid mode, that is to say at home and at another location. This is an increase of 0.4% in one month and 5.4% since the start of the year.
Proof that the hybrid work mode is becoming widespread, the number of workers who work exclusively from home is down 8.5% since the start of the year.
Hybrid working has been growing in most industries since the start of the year, except for those where it is not possible, such as accommodation and restaurants.
A record for immigrants
Immigrants, who account for almost a quarter of Canada’s population, according to the latest census data, continue to find a place in the labor market. In October, the employment rate for immigrants aged 15 and over was 62.2%, the highest level since 2006, when these data began to be published.
The employment rate is the ratio between the number of people at work and the total population of the group.
The employment rate for immigrants admitted in the last five years is 70.7%, up 5.6% from October 2019, before the pandemic.