Brazil was on Monday anxiously awaiting an acknowledgment of its defeat by President Jair Bolsonaro, walled in silence since the announcement of the presidential victory, hailed around the world, of Lula, whose mandate s announcement complicated.
After losing on Sunday by a narrow margin (50.9%-49.1%), the incumbent head of state – until the transfer of power to 1er January — had isolated himself in his official residence in Alvorada, Brasília.
He went Monday morning to the Planalto Palace, the seat of the presidency, without making the slightest statement, noted an AFP photographer.
This heavy silence, which Lula said he was “worried about” on Sunday evening, reminded many Brazilians that Jair Bolsonaro had repeatedly threatened not to recognize the verdict of the ballot box if he lost.
This climate of uncertainty was reflected in the volatility of the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange, Latin America’s leading financial center, which, after opening in the red, gained 0.40% at 3:30 p.m. GMT (11:30 a.m. Quebec).
The blocking of roads in at least 11 states and in the capital, Brasília, according to the traffic police, by Bolsonarist truckers and other demonstrators often wearing the yellow and green t-shirt of the radical right was also worrying.
Barrages of burning tires or vehicles were erected on roads in Mato Grosso (center-west), announced Concessionaria Rota Oeste, the manager of a highway in this agricultural state which mainly votes Bolsonaro, but also roads in Parana and Santa Catarina (south), Bolsonarist strongholds.
A highway linking the metropolises of Rio and Sao Paulo in the Southeast was also blocked, without it being possible to know whether the movement was spontaneous or coordinated by a political group.
Resuming the fight against deforestation
“While the risk of short-term protests is high, that of a serious institutional crisis is very low,” however, the Eurasia Group consultants estimated.
Lula’s victory was greeted around the world by an avalanche of messages from foreign leaders, from Washington to the European Commission via London, Paris, Beijing, Moscow, New Delhi and Buenos Aires. Many of them expressed their impatience to renew solid and productive relations with Brasília, after four years of diplomatic isolation under Jair Bolsonaro.
Many leaders took the opportunity to remind Lula how much the issue of protecting the Amazon, where deforestation has broken records since 2019, was a priority for the future of the planet.
Main funder for the protection of the largest tropical forest in the world, Norway has announced the release of its funding suspended since 2019.
“Brazil is ready to resume its leadership in the fight against the climate crisis […] Brazil and the planet need a living Amazon,” Lula said on Sunday evening in his victory speech.
Lula’s government will have to give back the resources to organizations monitoring deforestation in the Amazon, very weakened by the cuts in credits, the dismemberments and the total impunity of all kinds of traffickers.
“Pacify the country”
Lula’s mandate already looks complicated.
Already anticipating difficulties, he had hoped on Sunday that “the government [sortant] be civilized” and understand that “it is necessary to make a good transfer of power”.
Lula will have to bring together a Brazil battered by four years of tumultuous management by his predecessor, a country cut in two by the most polarized and brutal campaign in its recent history.
“Half the population is unhappy” with the result, notes for AFP Leandro Consentino, a political scientist from the private Insper University of Sao Paulo, 58 million voters having voted Bolsonaro. “Lula will have to pacify the country. »
There “does not exist two Brazils”, declared Lula on Sunday. “I will govern for 215 million Brazilians. »
The icon of the left will also have to deal with a Parliament that the legislative elections of October 2 have leaned more towards the radical right, the Liberal Party (PL) of Jair Bolsonaro having become the first formation in the Chamber of Deputies as in the Senate.
Lula has assembled a motley coalition of around ten parties around his Workers’ Party (PT) and will have to use all his negotiating skills to govern from the centre.
In the two months of transition, the future president must make announcements on the composition of his government.
Lula could leave room for more diversity in his team: women – there is only one left in the last Bolsonaro government -, people of color and indigenous people, a representative of whom should take the head of the newly created ministry.Aboriginal Affairs.
Another major challenge for Lula: he will have to finance the social policies promised, but without economic growth under his previous mandates (2003-2010).