Russia announced on Saturday, October 29, that it was suspending its participation in this agreement concluded in July to avoid a famine in many countries dependent on the production of cereals from Ukraine.
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“This tension that Vladimir Putin creates around cereals is a way of diverting attention”, explained on Saturday October 29 on franceinfo Guillaume Ancel, former officer of the French Army, writer and author of the blog “Ne pas undergo”. Russia suspends its participation in the agreement on grain exports from Ukraine. This decision was taken after the attack of a Russian fleet on Saturday morning in the port of Sevastopol, in Crimea.
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franceinfo: In recent weeks, Vladimir Putin has been very critical of this agreement, which expires in just over a fortnight. Does he use the attack as a pretext?
Guillaume Ancel: Clearly. For several days there have been doubts about the will of the Russians to maintain this agreement. For ten days they have been putting charges on the table against Ukrainians who they believe want to use a dirty bomb. One wonders where they are coming from since they have no proof and it makes no sense. For two weeks, the Russians have launched waves of attacks with hundreds of missiles and drones against civilian targets in Ukraine. The most important element is the battle around Kherson which the Russians are losing. They looted everything before leaving, even medicines. We must see in this tension that Vladimir Putin creates around cereals a way of diverting attention when, in reality, it is the military operations around Kherson which are structuring in the evolution of the crisis in Ukraine.
Could this be a pretext to launch new strikes on the Black Sea ports?
It’s possible. The Russians no longer need a pretext to strike anywhere. We know that they damaged between a third and 40% of the Ukrainian electricity system in order to put the population in total disarray. The Russians have entered into an all-out war against the Ukrainians and all they do in terms of propaganda is just disturbing. We know that this is the prelude to a wave of additional attacks. I think there will be very violent attacks on all the cities that are close to the front area.
Is this agreement a lever of pressure?
Very clearly. It is very likely that Vladimir Putin hopes for a round of negotiations to be able to keep part of what he illegally conquered in Ukraine. He knows that time is against him since he can’t stop the Ukrainians. His army is rolled, it loses on all fronts. So if he managed to negotiate a peace agreement now, he would have a chance to pretend that he had won something in Ukraine. If time runs out, he risks a total failure or even a debacle. This is what he wants to prevent.