The two aspirants to the highest office in Brazil – former president Lula, favorite in the polls, and incumbent president Jair Bolsonaro – came face to face one last time on Friday evening at 9:30 p.m. for a potentially decisive televised debate for the Sunday poll.
This debate on TV Globo, the most watched channel in the country, was expected as the culmination of an often filthy campaign, rich in low blows and misinformation on social networks.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who celebrated his 77th birthday on Thursday, slightly increased his lead in the latest poll by the benchmark institute Datafolha, published Thursday, with 53% of the voting intentions expressed, against 47% for the president of ‘far right. A gap of six points, which was only four points last week.
With this advantage – and if the polls are true – “Lula can be content to play for a draw, while Bolsonaro must win by several goals” during the debate on Friday, said political columnist Josias de Souza on the news site UOL.
“The only thing that can turn the tide is the televised debate. 55% of voters say this is an important moment for their decision-making. The slightest slippage can be decisive for the final result,” Felipe Nunes, political scientist and director of the Quaest polling institute, told AFP.
During the only other face-to-face between Lula and Bolsonaro, on October 16 on the Bandeirantes channel, the exchanges had been less aggressive than before. During the debates before the first round, which brought together other candidates, hateful remarks had flared up on both sides.
A momentum and two hiccups
In the first round, on October 2, Lula came out on top with 48% of the vote, against 43% for Jair Bolsonaro. But the far-right president’s score had turned out to be much higher than the polls predicted, giving him some momentum for the campaign in between rounds.
However, this momentum was slowed down by two major hiccups: unwelcome statements by the Minister of the Economy, Paulo Guedes, indicating that the increase in the minimum wage could no longer be indexed to inflation, and the incredible questioning of a former Bolsonarist deputy who injured police officers with grenades.
Feeling cornered, President Bolsonaro, who had muted his criticisms of the electronic ballot box system, found a new hobbyhorse this week: the denunciation of alleged irregularities in the broadcasting of electoral propaganda on the radio.
The Superior Electoral Court (TSE) rejected the request of the Head of State’s campaign team, arguing that no evidence had been presented, which could constitute an “electoral offense” and an attempt to “destabilize of the second round”.
According to experts, Mr. Bolsonaro is preparing the ground to challenge the result in the event of defeat, fueling fears of violent incidents, like the invasion of the Capitol in Washington after the defeat of Donald Trump in the American presidential election, in January 2021.
On his Truth Social network, the latter also renewed his support for the current Brazilian head of state on Friday, describing his opponent, Lula as “crazy of the radical left who will quickly destroy [le] country and the immense progress made under President Bolsonaro”. The American had already called to vote for his former counterpart last September, taking up the nickname “Trump of the Tropics” given to Mr. Bolsonaro.