This campaign therefore starts with a big meeting at the sports complex in Ankara, the capital, on Friday evening October 28th. The Turkish president, in power for 20 years, will unveil the program of his party the AKP, baptized in all simplicity “The century of Turkey”. Hundreds of buses from all over the country have been chartered by the AKP to bring in its supporters. Reçep Teyip Erdogan also invited the opposition parties because he intends to pose as a tutelary figure, as the protective father of the nation, as the heir of Atatürk, the founder of modern Turkey.
Above all, he wants to take advantage of a symbolic date: October 29 marks the 99th anniversary of the country’s independence. Hence the title of this program called “The Century of Turkey”. The watchword is in a way: “re-elect me so that I can launch and pilot our second century of independence”. And for this start of the campaign, the AKP has produced two clips in an almost Hollywood style, showcasing the modern history of Turkey and praising its current military power. At the end of one of these clips, we see in particular the missile batteries available to Turkey. And so it ends with the slogan “Türkiye Yüzyili”, “The Century of Turkey”.
To win again, Erdogan is betting on his international stature and a very conservative program. The diplomatic frenzy of the Turkish president must be seen largely through this prism. Erdogan wants to appear to the 85 million Turks as their protector, the best defender of their interests. Hence his repeated attempts to mediate between Ukraine and Russia. Hence his blackmail on Sweden’s membership in NATO, Sweden accused by Turkey of sheltering several Kurdish opponents. Hence the warming of Ankara’s relations with Israel: Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz was in Turkey on Thursday.
This activism on the international scene is accompanied by a repressive policy on Turkish soil, with journalists, human rights activists and artists in particular in the sights. And in this country where secularism, a legacy of Atarürk, remains enshrined in the Constitution, Erdogan accentuates his religious drift. He poses as a herald of Islam and his latest idea, presented last week, is a referendum to guarantee the right to wear the veil in the public service.
The ballot next year, in May or June, promises to be tight and tense. These will be general, legislative and presidential elections. The opposition, which brings together six parties, seems determined to agree on a single candidate: perhaps the mayor of Istanbul Ekrem Imamöglu or that of Ankara Mansur Yavas. In the polls, both are currently ahead of Erdogan by a few points.
The Turkish president has an Achilles’ heel, the bad economic situation: inflation of more than 80%, GDP per capita in sharp decline. The middle classes, in the big cities in particular, could therefore hesitate this time, after 20 years under the leadership of Erdogan.