Did the French government underestimate fuel shortages at gas stations during refinery strikes? This is what emerges from publicly available data analyzed by AFP, franceinfo and Le Figaro. If today the situation seems to be improving in the stations with the end of the strikes, at the height of the crisis, the consequences of the strikes on the ground were much more worrying than announced by the government. Asked by franceinfo
, “the government explains that it has additional parameters for analysis”.
Figures “much more alarming than announced”
One of the worst days of the shortage, October 17, the government declared than 28.1% of service stations in France
lacked either gasoline, diesel, or both. But the real proportion that day was around 40.6% according to an estimate by AFP based on data from the site prix-carburants.gouv.fr covering approximately 9,800 stationsand 40.8%, according to another estimate published Friday by Le Figaro
. Franceinfo concludes for its part that 50% of the stations were in difficulty that day.
Le Figaro evokes figures “much more alarming than announced”. Franceinfo, “by applying the same methodology as the executive, from the same data source”estimates the real figures of stations in difficulty “8 to 20 percentage points higher than the government”. These are national averages. The closed stations were indeed concentrated in the north, center and south-west, where the proportions were much higher, while the Great West was less affected.
Regional disparities
At the peak of the strike, 49% of resorts in Hauts-de-France and 47% of those in Ile-de-France were de facto closed on October 11 and 10, respectively, according to AFP, that is to say that they said they sold neither gasoline nor diesel. Proportions in phase with the testimonies collected from motorists in search of full. On those days, the government claimed that around 44% of the stations in these two regions were totally or partially out of service. Worse: in Haute-Garonne, 72% of stations experienced fuel shortages on October 11, according to AFP. At the peak of the strike, therefore, just under half of the stations in France ran out of fuel, of which a third were completely dry, according to several media estimates.
Interchangeable fuels
France has approximately 11,000 active service stations but only those who sell more than 500 cubic meters per year (about 9,800) must enter their prices every day on a portal of the Ministry of the Economy. An obligation more or less respected. These data can be downloaded from prix-carburants.gouv.fr, a platform that depends on the DGCCRF (General Directorate for Competition, Consumer Affairs and Fraud Prevention).
For its calculations, AFP considered, like the government, Le Figaro and franceinfo, the three types of gasoline SP98, SP95 and SP95-E10 as interchangeable. “For a station to be deemed to be out of fuel, it must no longer have any unleaded 95, unleaded 95 E10, or unleaded 98. These three fuels being considered ‘as potentially substitutable’ by the ministry” explains franceinfo. The ministry, questioned by AFP, explained that it only counted the stations declaring a “break”but not stations ticking another box saying that a fuel is “not distributed” on other grounds, a category that is not distinguished in public data.
The times of the lifts can also have a marginal influence on the rupture rate observed and these figures depends on station attendance for filling in the data, while some prices in the file go back several days.
What explanation from the government?
Asked by franceinfo, “the government explains that it has additional parameters for analysis”. “The basis we have is from a specific portal that has specific functionality based on breakup statements”, explained the ministry to our colleagues. It says have to additional indicator says “of availability” according to franceinfo. This indicator “is informed by service stations to let them know which fuels they distribute”.
This Friday evening, the trend remains nevertheless for improvement, thanks to the requisitions of striking employees and the suspension of strikes at Esso-ExxonMobil and TotalEnergies, only two sites of the French oil group being still on strike on Friday.