It was an expected decision, which therefore closes the first act of the budgetary discussion. No suspense: it was announced, and inevitable since the executive was regularly outvoted in the hemicycle. Place now in the second act, also known in advance: the motion of censure. Or rather the motions of censure. Two will be filed, one from the Nupes and the other from the RN.
To be adopted, the motion of censure must receive an absolute majority, ie 289 votes, that is to say the total Nupes + RN + LR. The left has only 151 MPs, the extreme right 89, and neither side will vote for the other. The government will not fall. End of suspense.
This will allow the oppositions to denounce a “forced passage”, a “denial of democracy”, in short to victimize themselves. They already started yesterday in the hemicycle. And then, for the four formations that make up the Nupes – Insoumis, PS, Greens and PCF – filing a common motion of censure makes it possible to close ranks. At least for a while. And the left really needs it in view of its disastrous comeback and the divisions that are eating away at it, in particular with the Quatennens and Bayou affairs.
Finally, it is a way for the left opposition to distinguish itself from that of the RN. Ten days ago, some rebels like the faithful Melenchonist Manuel Bompard did not rule out mixing their voices with those of the far right. They gave it up and the Nupes will show that basically its criticisms have nothing to do with those of the RN, and that it is indeed the first opposition to macronism since its text will collect more votes than that of the Lepenists. But without any chance of being adopted…
This is the downside of the maneuver. For four months, Jean-Luc Mélenchon has been repeating that he won the first round of legislative elections, and that Emmanuel Macron does not have a majority in the Assembly. Except that this comedy in two acts, 49.3 then motion of censure, will confirm two things that the Nupes is still struggling to admit: it has clearly lost the legislative elections, and if the government does not have an absolute majority, the left is still far, very far, from being able to constitute an alternative majority.