Watch out, 49.3 imminent. The Council of Ministers authorized, on Wednesday, October 12, the government to use this famous article of the Constitution to allow the adoption without a vote of the first part of its finance bill for 2023 in the National Assembly. But since then, the debates have continued in the hemicycle, without the opposition being fooled, almost as if nothing had happened.
>> Budget 2023: what you need to know about 49.3, this article of the Constitution which allows the government to force its way through the Assembly
On Tuesday, the government spokesman seemed to give the timing how to prepare the ground and the spirits. Recourse to 49.3 will be “most likely” for Wednesday, said Olivier Véran in the 4 Truths on France 2. Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne has accused the opposition for several weeks of being responsible for the blockage, when they had announced from the start that they would reject the finance bill.
When will 49-3 be activated?
After a week of false suspense, the government pushed the discussion to the end. As soon as he triggers it, this 49.3 will allow him to see the revenue part of the Budget adopted without a vote. Emmanuel Macron and Elisabeth Borne are to have lunch together on Wednesday noon, after the Council of Ministers. On the menu: timing. 49.3 must be activated on Wednesday late afternoon or early evening, according to several sources in the government contacted by franceinfo.
Another point of discussion: the final details of the text, even if everything is almost ready, because the government can do what it wants and can add articles or outright remove anything it doesn’t like. The opposition therefore believes that it has worked for nothing.
Will the government make a “gesture” towards the opposition?
Politically, the government is somewhat forced into it, especially if it wants to avoid a “forced passage” trial, after having pleaded so much for dialogue. Out of more than 3,400 amendments tabled by all the parliamentary groups, “80 to 100 amendments” will be retained in the final text, franceinfo learned on Tuesday. “This represents 700 to 800 million euros in additional public expenditure compared to the initial bill”explain several sources within the presidential majority.
The government should keep several amendments voted on at the initiative of the Socialists or the Republicans, such as the restoration of the widow’s half tax share for veterans, the increase in the tax credit for childcare as well as the reduction corporate tax for smaller SMEs and lower VAT on masks. But no amendment stamped National Rally or La France insoumise should be taken up. Same fate for the tax on super-dividends, proposed by the MoDem and voted by part of the majority.
>> REPLAY – The use of 49.3: a double-edged sword?
Is a motion of censure likely to be adopted?
To bring down the government, the entire opposition – that is to say from Nupes to the National Rally via Les Républicains – must vote for the same motion of censure, as one man. An unlikely scenario because the RN will not vote for the Nupes motion and vice versa. The LRs should abstain but the threat hovers and the executive should continue to play scare.
The 49.3 – unpopular tool, but oh so useful at the time of the relative majority – could be drawn even more quickly on texts which arrive, like the Social Security financing bill, the examination of which begins Thursday morning.