Make no mistake. If Vladimir Putin gave the order to bombard large Ukrainian cities, in defiance of human lives, that does not mean that he is winning the war.
Posted at 5:00 a.m.
Quite the contrary.
And if he had last month announced with great fanfare the annexation of four regions of Ukraine, this was not proof of a resounding triumph either.
Absolutely not.
His war had originally been presented as a quick operation to take control of Ukraine. It turned into a costly intervention with no end in sight.
Not only is Ukraine resisting, but with its recent counter-offensive it has once again humiliated Vladimir Putin and his army.
Putin’s image had been skillfully cultivated over the past decades. He was perceived, before invading Ukraine, as a great leader coupled with a skilful strategist.
The varnish cracked. We are now witnessing live the shrinking of the Russian president. And the shrinking of his dreams of grandeur.
The current escalation will not allow him to annihilate his Ukrainian rival.
Rather, it is a symbol of his powerlessness against a smaller, weaker, but much more determined rival surrounded by valuable allies.
This is actually a reaction to the widespread criticism from Russian hardliners on Ukraine.
And it is an act of revenge, certainly.
The powerful explosion on the bridge that connects Crimea to Russia represented a major slap in the face for the president, already irritated by the advances of Ukrainian forces within areas claimed by Moscow.
So here he is ordering strikes that destroy critical infrastructure and kill civilians, all over Ukraine. A barbaric tactic that prompted French President Emmanuel Macron to speak of a change “in the nature of this war”.
But if there is change, it is part of continuity. Because these new strikes remind us once again of the true nature of Vladimir Putin, the true nature of his regime and the true nature of this conflict.
The Russian escalation also bears witness to the successes of Western strategy. It is out of prudence that our leaders have decided to support Ukraine without intervening militarily. They wanted to avoid provoking the Russian bear too much.
We now see that this bet was the right one. At least until proven otherwise.
Because the current situation is not a guarantee of the future. Vladimir Putin was overestimated, but we must above all not start underestimating him now.
Russia still has vast resources. As unpopular as it is, the decision to mobilize 300,000 reservists will not be without consequences on the ground. And even if Moscow’s military equipment is not inexhaustible, missiles continue to rain down on Ukraine.
This is why Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called on his allies earlier this week to “strengthen the general effort to financially assist in the creation of an air shield for Ukraine”.
His request was heard. Germany and the United States have already decided to reinforce this air shield. It’s essential. Ukraine is still too vulnerable and the lives of many civilians are at stake.
Canada, for its part, released details on Wednesday of some $47 million in new military aid, including shells, specialized drone cameras and winter supplies for troops.
The needs are great and will not diminish. It is crucial for Canada and its allies to further increase their support.
Ukraine will also, of course, need additional financial assistance. In particular to repair the civil energy infrastructures destroyed by the Russian strikes.
The solidarity of Western countries will be put to the test in the coming months. Particularly in Europe, as we prepare for a winter without Russian gas.
Make no mistake. Vladimir Putin is weakened, but neither his imperial ambitions nor his desire for revenge are satisfied. He will definitely want to be able to puff out his chest again. Let’s not give him that chance.