The petrol pump crisis – even if it is not linked to the war in Ukraine but to social conflict – is a bit like a dress rehearsal for a high-risk winter on the question of energy supply. Will there be gas or electricity shortages this winter due to the Russian tap shutting down? Will we be able to pay our bills if prices soar? The Head of State will be expected on these issues.
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Emmanuel Macron will no doubt reiterate his calls for energy sobriety: consume less and wear turtlenecks. But behind the scenes, the challenge is above all to obtain a European agreement on the subject. European Union energy ministers are meeting on Wednesday 12 October to discuss the energy crisis and this will be the central theme of the EU summit on 20-21 October. However, we can feel the temptation of every man for himself among the 27: each country announces its own plan to stem the rise in prices.
Germany, in particular, shocked many of its partners by unilaterally unveiling a 200 billion euro national plan. However, not all the countries of the European Union have the means of Berlin and we will have to show solidarity. The idea of a new European loan is put forward by some. Similarly, the 27 do not currently agree on the principle of a gas price cap, an idea defended by Rome, Paris and Madrid. Berlin blocks. The Germans fear that a ceiling price will push gas supplier countries to favor other customers, China for example.
The war in Ukraine will obviously be the other big topic discussed during the interview. France’s position has changed on the subject. After hoping to reason with Vladimir Putin, Emmanuel Macron has adopted over the months an increasingly firm speech against Moscow. We heard that clearly before the United Nations General Assembly in September. The Head of State will certainly adopt this tone again on Tuesday evening. Especially since the position of warlord, above the fray, is rather buoyant.
After the showers of missiles launched on Ukraine by the master of the Kremlin, it is time for martial posture and the strengthening of military aid to Ukraine. France has been criticized for its low level of commitment in this field. Very far behind the United States, the United Kingdom, Poland or Germany. Emmanuel Macron should therefore confirm the delivery of six additional Caesar guns to kyiv. Modern and efficient equipment, much appreciated by Ukrainians. In kyiv, the Ministry of Defense even published a rather original little clip of thanks to France on Tuesday, October 12. The President of the Republic should finally confirm the sending of reinforcements in men and equipment to the countries on NATO’s eastern flank: Leclerc tanks in Romania, Rafale in Lithuania, infantry company in Estonia.
Vladimir Putin also implicitly waves the nuclear threat. It is therefore tempting to question Emmanuel Macron on the subject. At the Elysée, we believe that we must say as little as possible on this question, precisely so as not to accredit the very hypothesis of the use of the nuclear army. This taboo which must remain so. But the mere fact that the threat is brandished raises debates on the relevance of our dogma on the subject: the principle of nuclear deterrence. In other words: “Do not attack me because my riposte in return would inflict unsustainable losses on you.” Is this concept still effective? How to make it evolve to dissuade the potential aggressor? It would be interesting to hear the President of the Republic about this.