The drought that hit Europe this summer – and more generally the entire northern hemisphere – does not owe much to chance. According to a new study published on Wednesday October 5 by a group of specialized scientists, the World Weather Attribution (in English), global warming has made it 3 to 20 times more likely depending on the region. Because by consuming fossil fuels such as oil, coal and gas for travel, housing or food, humans warm the atmosphere of our planet and modify the characteristics of our climate.
To measure this link, the scientists used observational data and climate models. They also distinguished dryness on the surface of the soil (from 0 to 7 cm) and roots (0 to 100 cm). “This is the first attribution study on soil moisture, it’s innovative”, explains climatologist Robert Vautard, one of the authors of the study. In Europe, drought was made 3-4 times more likely for the soil surface and 5-6 times for the roots.
In the whole of the northern hemisphere, the figures increase to 20 times more probable for the roots and 5 times for the surface. “What is important is that in all cases we find a very significant difference in the change in probability”continues the man who directs the Pierre-Simon Laplace Institute.
“One can really confidently conclude that climate change has made this event much more likely.”
Robert Vautard, climatologist, author of the studyat franceinfo
These results are not a surprise. Drought is one of the risks identified for Europe by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its latest report (in English). As France is experiencing at the moment, it causes losses in agricultural yield, difficulties in supplying drinking water and promotes forest fires.
And that’s just the beginning. “We need to get rid of fossil fuels if we want to stabilize the climate and avoid aggravation of these drought episodes, which will become more frequent and more intense with each additional degree of warming”recalls the Swiss climatologist Sonia Seneviratne, one of the authors of the study, in a press release.
The climate has warmed by 1.1°C since the beginning of the industrial era. For the moment, the commitments made within the framework of the Paris agreement lead us, if they are respected, towards an overall rise of 2.7°C, well beyond the objectives set by the signatories.