“The Russian military is in an absolutely appalling state of disrepair“, declared Friday September 30 on franceinfo Bertrand Badie, professor emeritus at Sciences Po and specialist in international relations, while Russian President Vladimir Putin planned to ratify Friday the annexation by Russia of four Ukrainian regions, during celebrations. in Moscow. “In a Russia that shines with its isolation, it is necessary to show that this is not the case“, he explains, adding that “it is Vladimir Putin’s toss in the towel that remains the only chance for the international community“.
franceinfo: What is the meaning, in your opinion, of such celebrations?
Bertrand Badie: Vladimir Putin has nevertheless had a number of defeats since February 24. The first is a military defeat. Remember the atmosphere at the end of February, when the objective was to conquer kyiv and denazify the whole country. Today, we don’t talk about it at all. One has the impression that the retreat is towards the sole annexation of four Ukrainian regions. It is absolutely necessary to transform a military defeat into a political victory. Putin left many feathers of his international reputation. Remember that Russia is the second largest army in the world. We thought she was almost invincible. She has demonstrated that not only has she failed, but worse than that, she is in an absolutely appalling state of disrepair. You have to put a lot of cosmetics, especially political and ceremonial cosmetics, into this ceremony to make people forget the thing. Thirdly, it has been said, wrongly moreover, that China and India are its allies, yet these countries are increasingly standing out. And here too, in a Russia that shines by its isolation, it must be shown that this is not the case.
Is the reality of war for Russian soldiers any different from that propagated by Vladimir Putin?
We can clearly see that these unfortunate Russian soldiers, who are now joining the front, had no idea what they were expecting. They didn’t even know what it was. Secondly, there is a strong state of decomposition of this Russian army with an absence of a chain of command to coordinate, to order all that. Thirdly, and most importantly, Putin is discovering day by day that in front of him there is not only force, there is a Russian society, a living society and a reactive society. We have seen in the mobilization process, the flight of many Russians, Putin’s inability to stop people at the border who were waiting three days before crossing. We really have the feeling that society is escaping him. This is perhaps one of the strongest cards in the deck of the powers facing him today.
Can the Russians themselves bring an end to this conflict?
I believe there are three forces that can stop this conflict. First there is the rebellion of society in different forms. Next, the catastrophic forecasts for the Russian economy should not be underestimated. Sanctions, contrary to what some say, work. Third element: the diplomatic game that we will now have to deploy. Today, we no longer win wars and we are no longer beaten in wars. On the other hand, we give up, we throw in the towel, as the United States did in Vietnam, in Iraq, in Afghanistan, as the French and the British did in the wars of decolonization. It is Vladimir Putin’s toss in the towel that remains the only chance for the international community.