A sabotage that causes a stir. A fourth gas leak was detected by the Swedish Coast Guard on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines on Thursday (29 September) off the Danish island of Borholm. One thing is certain: human intervention is the cause of these leaks. “Our models [d’algorithmes] have made it possible to identify explosions, in particular from the shape of the waves, which is different in the case of an earthquake”, comments Björn Lund, director of the Swedish National Seismic Network. But who is behind these explosions and by what means?
The Kremlin obtained a meeting of the UN Security Council, and its spokesman, Dmitri Peskov, denounced a “terrorist act” involving a State, which he did not name. But Russian diplomacy implicitly accuses the United States, asking for “answers” to Joe Biden about his country’s involvement. A reference to statements by the tenant of the White House in early February, who claimed that Washington “would end” to Nord Stream 2 if Moscow intervened militarily in Ukraine.
Nord Stream 2, completed in 2021, was originally intended to double the capacity to import Russian gas into Germany. Its commissioning was suspended in retaliation for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “For the United States, the construction of a new gas pipeline was inconceivable, because it would have reinforced Europe’s energy dependence on Russia”comments Sophie Marineau, doctoral student in the history of international relations at the Catholic University of Louvain (Belgium).
American opposition to Nord Stream 2 “does not date from February 7 but from Donald Trump”, adds Olivier Appert, advisor to the Energy and Climate Center at Ifri. Former US President “had intervened very strongly with the German authorities to ask them to put an end to the project”. By considering thea possibility, for Germany, of supplying itself with American liquefied natural gas, with the construction of suitable terminals. “There is a game of chess between the Americans and the Russians: when the former are pushing an LNG ship, the latter are pushing a gas pipeline.”
“We all know that Russia has been spreading disinformation for a long time and they are doing it again here”, commented the spokeswoman for the National Security Council of the White House, Adrienne Watson. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov claimed almost symmetrically that he was “stupid and absurd” to suspect Russia. He pointed back “the enormous profits made by American suppliers of liquefied natural gas, which have multiplied their supplies on the European continent” since the start of the war.
Several accusations are aimed at Russia, even though no material element is yet available. “European security officials on Monday and Tuesday observed Russian Navy support vessels near the [futures] leaks”writes the American channel CNN (in English). Another hypothesis: explosives deposited beforehand using an underwater drone, triggered remotely, according to a source at the British Ministry of Defense, quoted by Sky News (in English).
The two pipelines operated by a consortium – combining the Russian giant Gazprom with Western groups – were not operational, due to the war in Ukraine. Nord Stream 1, in particular, had been shut down since August, but it still contained gas. International investigators will have to wait several days before going to the site, because of the bubbling caused by the escapes of this precious source of energy.
Observers are therefore reduced to guesswork. First hypothesis: the United States seeks the decoupling of Russia and Europe. “It would be a way to ensure that Russia definitely no longer has an economic-energy link with the EU”comment in Marianne Olivier Schmitt, researcher at the Center for War Studies at the University of Southern Denmark. Another track: “Russia may have a military need to once again put pressure on the Europeans through energy”as the EU seeks to “new suppliers”.
“It does not benefit the Russians because they are shooting themselves in the foot by stopping Nord Stream 1”estimated for franceinfo Olivier Appert, advisor to the Energy and Climate Center of Ifri. “And of course, this does not benefit the Europeans”. The tension on the gas market, on the other hand, will result in “an immediate increase in prices from which LNG suppliers benefit, starting with the Americans and the Qataris, who are the leading producers in the world”.
“The Americans have already won from their point of view, because the Nord Stream gas pipelines are neutralized”declares for his part Denis Florin, energy specialist, in an interview with The Express. “I don’t see why they would have destroyed them.”
Conversely, what would be the interest of Moscow in depriving itself of this outlet, after having invested large sums in these infrastructures? “Russia may have sent a signal to show that it can do this on other pipelines”, underlines Thierry Bros, energy specialist and professor at Sciences-Po. On the same day, the Europeans, and in particular the Poles, “opened an underwater gas pipeline that linked them to Norway”.
Finally, Russia, in military difficulty in Ukraine, could also be suspected of seeking to ignite a counter-fire to instill doubt between the United States and its European allies.