François Legault and Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois both seem equally eager to return to the good old days when an election was essentially about choosing between the good and the bad.
The fewer people there are at the table, the bigger each person’s share will be. For decades, the PLQ and the PQ served as foils for each other. The co-spokesperson for Québec solidaire is undeniably a gifted politician and his performance in Thursday’s debate matched his talent, but Mr. Legault’s performance was so poor that he almost looked like he wanted make the adversary he has designated for a long time as his privileged interlocutor look good.
Even if their vision of the future of Quebec society is diametrically opposed, they have clearly understood that they can be of mutual service. After stealing the banner of economic development from the PLQ, Mr. Legault made it clear that he also intends to replace it as defender of federalism, just as QS aspires to become the sole voice of progressivism and independence, even if the latter is relegated to a footnote.
Despite everything, the CAQ remained a foreign body in Montreal and needed QS to drive the Liberals back to their entrenchments on the West Island. On Friday, Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois even went to campaign in Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne. In the painful situation in which Dominique Anglade finds himself, this visit felt like a kick from the ass.
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The CAQ can give it the favor by liquidating the last pockets of PQ resistance in remote regions. A good number of sovereigntists will undoubtedly migrate to the CAQ, but QS will be able to recover in exchange the federalists of the left who want to leave the PLQ. It is well known, good accounts make good enemies.
Who knows, once we have eliminated the undesirables who make the game of alternation more complicated, QS may end up discovering in turn the virtues of the current voting system!
However, more than one sovereigntist must have had a twinge of heart, Thursday evening, imagining all that Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois and Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, who flew over the debate, could accomplish if they walked hand in hand. At times, the two men must have caught themselves thinking that what they have in common outweighs their disagreements.
However, it is clear that the resentment and bitterness created by the rejection of the alliance proposed by the PQ in 2017 have not disappeared. The question about white niggers of america by Pierre Vallières that the PQ leader addressed to his solidarity vis-à-vis recalled that on the “politburo” of QS with which Jean-François Lisée had hoped to mistreat Manon Massé during the 2018 debate.
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Leaders’ debates are an important moment in a campaign, but they are not necessarily decisive. The legendary face-offs that seal the outcome of an election, such as the one between Jean Lesage and Daniel Johnson in 1960, or Brian Mulroney and John Turner in 1984, are more the exception than the rule. .
In 2003, Jean Charest effectively changed the course of the campaign by downgrading Bernard Landry. On the other hand, André Boisclair in 2007, Pauline Marois in 2008, François Legault in 2014 all won the debate and lost the election.
Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois’ performance in the National Assembly left little doubt about his ability to shine in a debate. For many, the surprise came instead from Paul St-Pierre Plamondon. Although he finished fourth, he had already impressed many in the 2016 PQ leadership race, but he rose to another level during the campaign. If the PQ still can’t take off by October 3, it certainly won’t be its fault.
This is not the format of Face to face VAT nor a lack of preparation which explains the discomfiture of Mr. Legault. He was simply overwhelmed by the liveliness of his opponents. However, we must not take it for granted that history will repeat itself next week on Radio-Canada.
In 2018, the head of the CAQ had lost the first debate, but he had been able to bounce back during the second, and it was the one that the voters had retained. Even if he obtains a new majority, we can however be certain that he himself will not forget his painful evening on Thursday. Since the first day of the campaign, he is visibly struggling. It is far from obvious that he will want to do it again in 2026.