The Robert dictionary offers a common definition of inertia: an absolute lack of activity, intellectual or moral energy.
Posted yesterday at 12:00 p.m.
When it comes to immigration to Quebec, we are in a dangerous state of inertia. We persist in thinking that the permanent immigration thresholds – the famous round numbers from 20,000 (a certain columnist) to 100,000 (certain employer groups) – represent the number of people who will arrive in Quebec each year to stay. Same thing for the famous 475,000 projected by the federal government.
However, for almost 10 years, this is no longer the case. These figures, announced by the Canadian and Quebec governments in their multi-year and annual immigration plans, represent the number of people who will receive their permanent residence visa each year. It’s not the same anymore.
Why ? Because the vast majority of people (generally excluding the family reunification and refugee categories) who arrive in Canada and Quebec each year hold a temporary study or work permit. We do not know how many will eventually ask to stay in Quebec, but, as on the Canadian side, the Quebec government encourages these people to stay and facilitates their path to permanent residence.
The difference is that temporary immigration is unplanned. The government does not set targets or caps on the number of temporary permits that will be issued or set language conditions.
Quebec’s immigration plan for 2022 targets a permanent immigration volume of between 49,500 and 52,500 people, with an additional 18,000 to make up for the 2020 shortfall. According to the Canada-Quebec Accord on immigration, the federal government is required to respect the total volume of permanent immigration planned by Quebec. Between 1er January and July 31 of this year, almost 32,000 people in Quebec obtained their permanent residence.
We know that at least 86% of the people who were selected in 2019 as skilled workers were already in Quebec with a temporary permit. Skilled workers accounted for 56% of admissions as of July 31, 2022. We can therefore assume that almost half of admissions this year have been in Quebec for a few years.
During this time, almost double, more than 61,000 people arrived in Quebec from abroad during the same period thanks to a temporary permit (this figure does not include asylum seekers).
These permits are issued under three programs – international studies, international mobility (IMP) and temporary foreign workers (TFWP).
In the first five months of this year, 16,785 study permits had already been issued. Let’s not forget that the months of July, August and September are the best for these permits. In the third quarter of last year, more than 31,000 young people obtained their permit to study in Quebec.
A hodgepodge of permits
The PMI is a hodgepodge of permits issued for all sorts of reasons. It offers open work permits that do not bind the person to an employer. It simply gives the right to work – or not. Federal data for this program is particularly incomplete, but according to published information, at least 22,310 people obtained an open permit in Quebec in the first six months of this year (the province of destination is not declared for almost a quarter of the Canadian PMI holders). Half of the people admitted to this program are graduates of a post-secondary institution in Canada and the spouses of people with a specialized work or study permit.
Finally, 22,180 people received permits under the TFWP in Quebec between January and the end of July, including 16,805 agricultural workers. These permits are closed. Holders are required to stay with the employer who hired them from abroad.
So there are already more than 61,000 people from abroad who have arrived in Quebec just in the first six months of this year who are not included in the permanent immigration threshold plan for 2022.
We have in recent years radically changed our immigration model without any serious debate. Instead of one-step immigration – the immigrant and family obtain permanent residency prior to arrival – we have moved to two-step immigration – the person finds a way to come with a temporary permit (often for studies) and stays in Quebec for several years, moving from one temporary permit to another until she is eligible to apply for permanent residence, usually under the Quebec Experience Program.
There are many consequences linked to this new model, some potentially positive, but others very harmful, both for people who have been in precarious conditions for years and for Quebec society.
It is this shift that must be debated, not the number of permanent residence visas that will be granted in a year. Let’s stop fueling a sterile debate on arbitrary figures and commit ourselves to undertake, after the elections, a fundamental societal reflection on the immigration model that will best serve the Quebec of tomorrow.