the government raises its inflation forecast to 4.2% in 2023

In its finance bill for 2023, the executive also expects growth of 1% next year, against 1.4% expected so far.

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A higher than expected price increase. The Ministry of the Economy has revised its inflation forecast for 2022 upwards, to 5.3%, against 5% forecast so far, and to 4.3% in 2023, against 3.2% forecast previously. This new forecast is due to a context of “continued war in Ukraine, tensions over energy prices and economic fragility” of France’s main trading partners, announced on Tuesday, September 13, the Minister of the Economy, Bruno le Maire.

In its finance bill for 2023, the government is also counting on growth of 1% in 2023, against 1.4% anticipated by the government in July. The government will present its text at the end of September, which will notably record the continuation of a system of “tariff shield” on the prices of gas and electricity, amounting to several tens of billions of euros.

“In this tense economic context, France is resisting”however assured the minister in front of journalists, who points to the growth of at least 2.5% expected in 2022 as proof. Despite the downward revision of growth for next year, “we will hold the 5% public deficit” in 2023, promised Bruno Le Maire.

The government reaffirmed its objective of bringing the public deficit below the 3% of GDP threshold in 2027, at the end of the five-year term. Public debt should for its part decline to 111.5% of GDP in 2022 (against 112.5% ​​in 2021) and 111.2% in 2023, according to Bercy. Figures slightly below the debt levels expected so far.


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