we summarize the week when kyiv regained the military initiative against Russian troops

A few days ago, such a scenario seemed unlikely. After several months of status quo in the war between Ukraine and Russia, the military dynamic now seems to be on the side of the kyiv troops. Kupiansk, Balakliïa, Vovtchansk… The list of towns recaptured from Russia by the Ukrainian army has been growing day by day since September 6th. The capture of Izium, in particular, materializes the lightning counter-offensive which pushed back the Russian forces from most of the Kharkiv region. The blue and yellow flag flies again on the building of the local government, whereas this city constituted, until now, an important logistic platform for the forces of Moscow.

>> Follow the latest information on the war in Ukraine in our live

In total, “since the beginning of September, our soldiers have already liberated 6,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in the east and south, and we continue to advance”, declared Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, Monday, September 12 in the evening. Twice as much, therefore, as what had been announced only the day before. According to the first available elements, the local army is now trying to gain a foothold east of the Oksil River, which acts as a natural border. Before hoping for better, this time in the Luhansk region.

Fighting is raging around Lyman, the lock of the axis that leads to the Donbass. This does not prevent the governor of the occupied Luhansk oblast, Sergei Gaïdai, from displaying his optimism: “Ukrainian Armed Forces will soon start operations to liberate the region.” The situation is changing day by day, and it is still too early to know where the future front line between the two belligerent countries will be fixed.

NEW: #Ukrainian forces are continuing to make impactful gains in #Kherson Oblast and are steadily degrading the morale and combat capabilities of #Russian forces in this area.

The latest with @criticalthreats:https://t.co/gjDA0Mp2kt pic.twitter.com/xk3L3VkVfL

—ISW (@TheStudyofWar) September 13, 2022

According to the Conflict Intelligence Team, an organization of Russian experts, Moscow has lost 7.7% of the territory it occupied in Ukraine since June 2. Most of these losses (6.9%) occurred during the last week of the offensive. The Kremlin first tried to invoke a “strategic regrouping of forces”. But this statement was hardly misleading, as the departure of the Russian forces seems precipitated. Countless documents prove that Russian forces did abandon ammunition and vehicles in a hurry, without even taking the time to sabotage them.

Edouard Jolly, researcher at the Institute for Strategic Research at the Military School, talks on franceinfo “about forty tanks, including about twenty which would require repairs, about twenty very recent T-80 tanks (…), infantry fighting vehicles, transmission and reconnaissance equipment and also artillery units “. An unexpected windfall, which gave rise to a very popular joke on social networks on the Ukrainian side: “If Russia sends us so many weapons, then Germany can also do it…”

This counter-offensive in the East is surprising, because kyiv had at first contented itself with announcing a major operation in the South, finally launched the week of September 5, in order to retake the city of Kherson, occupied since the first days of the conflict. Remarkably, this shows the ability of the Ukrainian army to advance simultaneously on two fronts. In total, kyiv claims to have taken over 500 square kilometers of territory from Russian forces in two weeks, from its stronghold of Mykolaiv.

“Why is it happening now? Because the bulk of the Western military equipment that was promised, especially American, has arrived,” esteem on franceinfo Pierre Servent, operational reserve colonel and specialist in defense issues. A reference to the Himars, these American rocket launchers with very long range.

Cooperation with the United States is also intense in terms of military intelligence: in August, Washington signaled to kyiv that “the Russians had moved some of their best units to the South”explains to New York Times (in English) Colin Kahl, Pentagon number three. Finally, since the start of the war, the United States has already trained 1,475 Ukrainian soldiers in the use of artillery systems and drones, according to figures obtained by the magazine Foreign Policy.

However, the response from the East did not lead to “rout” Russian, warns on franceinfo Etienne de Poncins, French ambassador to Ukraine. “There is no [capture de] Russian prisoners on a massive scale by Ukrainian troops.” In the short term, Vladimir Putin’s forces will still be forced to define new objectives. “The Russians will have to choose between retreating to the Donbass or keeping the southern strip with the Sea of ​​Azov and Crimea”analysis for The world Joseph Henrotin, research fellow at the Institute of Comparative Strategy (ISC).

Recent Ukrainian victories have elicited many reactions from Russian military commentators. Some want to continue to believe in an alleged trap set for the enemy, the better to stifle him. But this explanation is hardly convincing.

>> War in Ukraine: the surprising change in tone of the Russian media

Alexander Kots, Russian war correspondent, evokes, as for him (in Russian), the presence of “frozen cowboys” and “African Americans” who came to fight in Ukraine in foreign units. And therefore accuses NATO of intervening directly on the ground, on the strength of a video published by Malcolm Nance, an American veteran who left to join the international legion last March.

Moreover, the Kremlin and the Russian general staff are coming under unprecedented criticism from the ultra-nationalist camp. Igor Girkin, known as “Strelkov” (“the shooter” in Russian), had already multiplied the banderillas since the beginning of the conflict. This Russian military expert, who enjoys an aura of having led the Donetsk rebels in 2014, now calls the generals “cretins” (in Russian) and points out the command’s tactical errors. “The enemy will not give our troops time to regroup and reinforce vulnerable positions.”

The most prominent Telegram channels (Grey Zone, Military informant, Letters from Yaroslavl, etc.) have also multiplied critical comments on the military command. “We know we’re all on your blacklists because we’re the most inconvenient to you”, writes the Rybar channel (780,000 subscribers) to the attention of the Russian Ministry of Defense. The Chechen leader, Ramzan Kadyrov, said in turn that he himself would go to discuss “the situation on the ground with the leaders of the Ministry of Defense and the country”if the strategy was not changed.

For his part, the Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, prefers to temporize: “Vladimir Putin is in contact 24 hours a day with the Minister of Defense and the military commanders”. A way, therefore, to remember that the president is still in charge of what he calls “the special operation”. The day before, Vladimir Putin had appeared at the inauguration of a Ferris wheel for Moscow’s 875th anniversary, raising questions about his handling of the situation, even as Izium returned to Ukrainian control.

The Russian president then postponed a scheduled meeting with senior brass and representatives of the military industry. In retaliation, Russian aircraft also bombed the second largest thermal power plant in Ukraine, near Kharkiv, causing a giant power failure. Then the strikes resumed on Monday in two districts of the regional capital (killing at least one person and injuring six), without the staff deigning to specify the strategic objective sought. On Tuesday, the Ministry of Defense announced massive strikes in “all operational departments”.

At the same time, the advisability of a general mobilization is once again being debated. Gennady Zyuganov, leader of the Russian Communist Party, is in favor of it, believing that the country is now “in war”. The option seems adventurous, politically and militarily. And Alexander Khodakovsky, a commander of the Vostok Battalion, has already distanced himself from the idea of ​​general mobilization. Russian setbacks, he insists (in Russian)are not related to the number of soldiers but to their “sloppy use”, as well as the lack of organization and equipment. In the short term, he writes, Russia is doomed to “grind its resources in the meat grinder of war”.

“For the moment, no, there is no discussion” about a possible general mobilization, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told the press on Tuesday. He assures that the offensive “will continue until the objectives initially set are achieved”. It remains to be seen which ones, as these seem to have varied since the beginning of the war. kyiv, for its part, still has a few weeks to drive the point home, before the arrival of the first frosts of winter.