The Coalition avenir Québec estimates the cost of its election promises at 29.6 billion dollars over four years, including some 21 billion only for the deployment of its “anti-inflation shield”.
“Currently, the main concern of Quebecers — all the members have seen it on the ground — is inflation, the increase [du prix] groceries, the price of gas, then, more recently, interest rates, particularly among seniors who have small pensions,” argued the chief caquiste, François Legault, during the presentation of the financial officer of the CAQ, in Saint-Jérôme on Saturday.
He invited voters to “calculate” on the CAQ website their share of the “anti-inflation shield” promised by his political party. ” You can not miss it [le calculateur]he is on the front page, ”he noted five days before the first televised face-to-face between the chefs.
The four measures of the “anti-inflation shield” will strain public finances. The one percentage point reduction in the tax rates of the first two levels as of 2023 alone will deprive the Generations Fund of $7.4 billion over four years. For its part, the “one-time amount” of $400 or $600 granted to taxpayers who earned less than $100,000 in 2021 will cost more than 3.5 billion. The increase in financial assistance offered to low-income seniors from $411 to $2,000 will cost nearly $7.9 billion. Finally, capping government tariff increases at 3% during inflationary surges would deprive the Quebec government of nearly $2.2 billion in revenue.
In particular, the Quebec state will finance the CAQ’s electoral commitments from additional budgetary “room for manoeuvre” of $9 billion. Indeed, the CAQ anticipates more sustained real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth (+0.5%) from 2024 to 2027, which would result in additional revenue of $3 billion. It also expects to make additional savings of 4 billion by continuing the “review of programs”. “I want to be clear: we are talking about program spending of $150 billion in 2026-2027 and [d’une] revision of programs of 1.5 billion, therefore 1%. So it’s just good practice. Each year, there are programs that are used less than others, ”put the candidate in Groulx, Eric Girard, into perspective, who was brought to the head of the Ministry of Finance in the fall of 2018. “There are still a lot of work to do [pour réduire la bureaucratie] “said Mr. Legault for his part.
Larger deficits
However, the CAQ does not foresee a return to a balanced budget before fiscal year 2027-2028. The political party of François Legault foresees larger deficits than those he apprehended in the pre-election report on the state of public finances in Quebec: 7.7 billion in 2022-2023 (and no longer 729 million); 2.1 billion in 2026-2027 (and no longer 1.9 billion) after deposits (revised downwards) in the Generations Fund and withdrawals from various reserves. “We set ourselves a five-year objective to achieve a balanced budget,” said Mr. Legault at a press conference.
Word of CAQists: the ratio of net debt to GDP will gradually decrease, from 38% to 35.9% from 2022 to 2026. “We are the ones who reduce the debt the most as a percentage of GDP. It is important because this debt, we leave it to our children, “said Mr. Legault before scratching the “reckless” financial executives of the Quebec Liberal Party and “disconnected” from Quebec solidaire. “Now is not the time to play cowboy with Quebecers’ money. Money doesn’t grow on trees,” said the head of the CAQ.
François Legault swears that the “prudent”, “responsible”, “credible” and “balanced” financial framework on which a CAQ government would rely over the next four years takes into account the “uncertain global context” caused by the war in Ukraine , the jump in interest rates and the level of inflation. Moreover, it provides for a provision for economic risks and other support and recovery measures of 8 billion, in addition to a Contingency Fund of 2 billion, he pointed out.
And the caquiste “roadmap” offers “adequate funding for all services to citizens” starting in health and education and higher education where it provides for an increase in investments to the tune of, respectively, 4.5% and 3 .5%. “Education remains the top priority for the CAQ,” said Mr. Legault, before addressing the themes of the environment and culture.
The PLQ, QS and the PQ shocked
The leader of the PLQ, Dominique Anglade, fears a period of “austerity” if the CAQ is re-elected on October 3. “The revision of programs is the same thing as cuts. It is CAQ austerity that is announced to us. 1.5 billion cuts. Where are they going to cut? “, she asked, while accusing the team of François Legault of “invents itself [r] revenues that are based on absolutely nothing but wind”.
For his part, the spokesperson for QS, Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois, reproached the CAQ for not having included “nothing, not a penny” more in its financial framework to intensify the fight against climate change. “Québec solidaire presented its 2030 Vision to you, François Legault presents his 1990 vision to you today. It is a financial framework from another era, it is the plan of a man from another era,” said he chirped.
The leader of the Parti Québécois, Paul St-Pierre-Plamondon, for his part attacked the tax cuts promised by the CAQ, which will undoubtedly weaken, according to him, “our ability to finance our public services”. “It’s a one-way ticket to austerity. What is more, the Generations Fund is being used to finance a tax cut. I don’t find that responsible, ”he said, while pledging to present the PQ’s financial framework before the first of the two leaders’ debates on Thursday.
QPP contribution holiday
In addition, Eric Girard confirmed on Saturday that a future government of the CAQ will give a holiday from contributions to the Quebec Pension Plan (QPP) to workers aged 65 and over who wish to do so. The CAQ sees this as one more measure to alleviate the labor shortage.
With Isabelle Porter