If I trust only those around me — family, friends, colleagues, subscribers on social networks — the Parti Québécois (PQ) and Québec solidaire (QS) will be vying for victory in the elections on October 3. The Coalition avenir Québec (CAQ), for its part, will be in the race and could surprise, the Liberal Party of Quebec (PLQ) will be wiped off the map and the Conservative Party of Quebec (PCQ) will make an unpleasant noise, but without consequence. .
Reality, obviously, does not correspond to the echo chamber—mine—that I have just exposed. The CAQ, in fact, is sailing towards a crushing victory, QS and the PLQ will try to maintain their weak gains, the PQ will agitate to save the furniture and the PCQ will perhaps make surprising breakthroughs in the Quebec region.
I am therefore forced to note that my world is not representative of the reality of Quebec as a whole and to ask myself who are these people who are so different from those around me and what are their electoral motivations.
I find a good part of the answer in The new Quebec voter (PUM, 2022, 184 pages), a very enlightening study conducted by political scientists Éric Bélanger, Jean-François Daoust, Valérie-Anne Mahéo and Richard Nadeau. This scholarly work seeks to establish the long- and short-term explanatory factors of the electoral behavior of Quebecers. To do so, it is based on the results of a post-electoral opinion survey carried out from October 10 to 30, 2018, i.e. just after the elections of that same year, with 2,821 respondents constituting a representative sample of the Quebec population. Knowing who voted for whom and why, in 2018, provides us with keys to understanding the current political dynamics in Quebec and the current election.
The results of 2018, according to political scientists, are of course explained by a desire for change. Quebeckers had had enough of the Liberals who had reigned almost unchallenged for 15 years. Another reason appears on the radar, however. The shelving of the debate on sovereignty weighed on support for the two old parties — PQ and PLQ — which had made it their driving force. This development has left room for new issues such as the environment and the management of cultural diversity, to the benefit of the new parties, the CAQ and QS. This latter trend is still very much alive.
Who are, admittedly, the voters who have remained faithful to the historical formations and those who have embraced the promises of the newcomers? To establish this, political scientists use an explanatory model called the “causal funnel” which is based on four blocks of voting determinants: socio-demographic variables (age, gender, region, language, education, income), values and ideological orientations, short-term issues and the influence of leaders. The demonstration is captivating. Among the ton of information it presents, I retain a few highlights.
If we isolate the age variable, we see that the CAQ comes first in almost all the brackets, with about 40% of support, except among young people aged 18-29, who rather choose QS in the same proportion, and among those aged 70 and over, who also vote (35%) for the CAQ and the PLQ.
The gender variable shows men (40.1%) more infatuated with the CAQ than women (35.5%). Income also influences voting. The poorest (less than $24,000) mainly vote for the CAQ (37.8%), but also give strong support (28.4%) to QS. Among Francophones, the CAQ (43%) and the PQ (24.5%) dominate. Anglophones (80.9%) and allophones (69.8%) continue to trust the PLQ. In the regions, people voted largely for the CAQ, while in Montreal, Laval and the Outaouais, the PLQ remained in the lead.
The most surprising variable is that concerning the level of education. The more you are educated, the less you vote for the CAQ, which collects 50.9% of the vote among voters who have not passed high school, but 32% or less among university graduates, often loyal to the PLQ.
Values and ideologies matter too. If we are on the left, we choose QS or the PQ. A great openness to “alternative lifestyles” and an environmental concern favor QS. A strong attachment to the Quebec identity pushes towards the CAQ or the PQ.
Sovereignist, we vote mainly for the PQ. The survey also concludes that there are as many federalists as sovereignists who support QS, and that the primary motivation of this party’s voters is positioning on the left. The PQ’s problem is that sovereignty is no longer considered a priority issue by a majority of voters.
What about October 3? Expect a bit more of the same deal.