After conquering the suburbs four years ago, could the Coalition avenir Québec (CAQ) make gains this fall in the major urban centres, to the detriment of “fragmented” opposition parties weakened by the political repercussions of the pandemic ? Some experts believe so.
But the formation of François Legault could face fierce competition from the Conservative Party of Quebec on the outskirts of the capital, they note.
In Quebec, to win a general election, you have to win the hearts of voters in the regions and in the suburbs of major centers, which the CAQ succeeded in doing for the first time in its history on 1er October 2018 by forming a majority government. François Legault’s party, less popular in urban centres, had only won two ridings in Montreal, which has 27. They are both located at the eastern end of the island.
The rest of the metropolis had then been largely swept away by the Liberal Party of Quebec, which had also won five of the six ridings of Laval, the third largest city in Quebec, where the CAQ had made only one gain in 2018. Québec solidaire had also solidified its achievements in the major centers, in particular in Rosemont and in Hochelaga-Maisonneuve, in Montreal, as well as in two central ridings of Quebec, Taschereau and Jean-Lesage, where Catherine Dorion and Sol Zanetti were elected.
The rest of the province had been colored in the pale blue of the CAQ, leaving the Parti Québécois only 10 ridings in total, in the regions as well as in Joliette and Longueuil (Marie-Victorin).
Four years later, the electoral projections — which of course are intended to be preliminary — give the CAQ an even stronger lead over its adversaries, in particular thanks to its stranglehold on voting intentions in the suburbs of major centers.
So is it fair, in this context, to say that the CAQ is “a party of suburbanites”?
“There’s no doubt about it,” launches bluntly Philippe J. Fournier, the creator of the Qc125 electoral projection site. Almost all the ridings that are not “central” — in other words, urban — are held by the CAQ, he recalls in an interview with the To have to.
Éric Duhaime’s Conservative Party could also constitute a serious rival of the CAQ in certain ridings in the suburbs of Quebec, where the two parties are trying to seduce the same electorate, indicates Mr. Fournier. “Certainly, electoral targets [du PCQ]the typical conservative voter, are located in the suburbs”, also indicates the assistant professor in public and political communication at the National School of Public Administration Philippe Dubois.
The Qc125 site describes in particular as “pivots” (oscillating between the CAQ and the Conservative Party) the riding of Chauveau, in the region of Quebec, and those of Beauce. “What seems to be the case as we speak is that the socio-demographic profiles that correspond to the typical Conservative electorate seem to be concentrated in the suburbs and the crowns of Quebec,” adds Mr. Dubois.
An identity party
The decisions of the CAQ since it came to power four years ago bear witness to its interest in meeting the expectations of voters who live in a family home in a low-density suburb where the car is generally king, illustrates Ms. Fournier.
The latter cites as examples the project for a third highway link between Quebec and Lévis defended by the party, as well as that of the extension of Highway 25 in Lanaudière. The party also promised in 2018 to extend the Metropolitan Express Network to Chambly, in the southern suburbs of Montreal. The CAQ is now considering extending the possible light rail route to Lanaudière, where Repentigny and Terrebonne, among others, are located.
The CAQ is also betting on an identity message that affects the French-speaking majority who live in the suburbs and in the regions, analyzes Daniel Béland, professor of political science at McGill University. “The CAQ has very little support among Anglophones and allophones”, more present in the major centers, many of whom criticized the reform of the Charter of the French language and the Act respecting the secularism of the State, notes the expert. “It can establish this image of a party of small towns and suburbs,” he also says.
Philippe Dubois thus believes that the CAQ employs a political strategy that “creates consensus” with “a majority of Quebecers”. However, “the average voter” is generally located “outside the city centers”, he adds.
conquer the cities
More than fifteen pivotal urban constituencies, located in particular in Montreal, Laval and Quebec, could however fall into the fold of the CAQ on October 3, we note by consulting the Qc125 website.
This is particularly the case for the ridings of Jean-Lesage, in the capital, and Joliette, where PQ MP Véronique Hivon is bowing out. The situation is similar in Rosemont, currently united, and in Verdun, a strong Liberal castle for decades, two ridings on the island of Montreal.
“There are four opposition parties. So this fragmentation favors the party in power, ”explains Mr. Béland. Dominique Anglade’s Liberal Party, he recalls, “has lost a lot of feathers with Francophones, and now also with Anglophones and allophones.” The reduction of the “cleavage” between the federalists and the sovereignists also harms the Parti québécois, in addition to benefiting a CAQ which wants to be nationalist, notes Philippe Dubois.
Moreover, “the oppositions had relatively little place [dans les médias] in recent years”, in the context of the pandemic, adds the expert. The latter therefore believes that the CAQ could succeed in breaking through in several cities on October 3 – to the detriment of the PLQ, in particular. The formation of François Legault could then break away from its image of a suburban party. To be continued.