While Gazprom will completely suspend its gas deliveries to the French group Engie from this Thursday, September 1, some countries closer to Russia fear this scenario. Those who cannot do without this Russian gas then prefer to discuss with Moscow. Examples with Hungary, Bulgaria and Serbia.
Hungary defends Moscow and protects its gas
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has condemned the war in Ukraine, but he has always defended Moscow’s point of view, notably by blocking the European embargo on Russian oil. For now, this strategy is working and the country is getting all the gas it needs. In recent months, however, Hungary has at times received slightly less gas than expected from the Nord Stream pipeline. There were breaks in deliveries, for maintenance reasons, according to the Russians. Hungary was able to compensate for these temporary drops, thanks to the gas arriving via the TurkStream. A gas pipeline that passes through the Black Sea and crosses Bulgaria and Serbia, and which supplies Hungary with half of the gas imported from Russia. Hungary is therefore less dependent on the Nord Stream than other European countries.
This TurkStream gas pipeline is however supplied by Russian gas, so Hungary remains dependent on Moscow. The government of Viktor Organ does not seem to be doing much to reduce this dependency. On the contrary, it is signing more and more contracts with Gazprom. It must be said that the majority of Hungarian families heat themselves with gas, and Hungary consumes 10 billion cubic meters of gas each year, 85% of this gas comes from Russia. In the long term, Hungary could reduce its dependence by developing solar energy and geothermal energy. But the government still bases its energy policy on Russian gas.
Bulgaria seeks to restore dialogue with Gazprom
Bulgaria is completely dependent on Russia for natural gas supplies, and Sofia has recently changed course. After refusing any compromise with Gazprom, the government of Prime Minister Kiril Petkov had to resign in June after a vote of no confidence. In April, Moscow decided to stop gas deliveries. A provisional government has been appointed by President Roumen Radev. His only function is normally to organize early elections, but he was also quick to point the finger at the previous government and accuse it of causing chaos in the energy sector. He now says he is ready to sit down at the negotiating table with Gazprom to find common ground within the framework of the agreement that the Russian group broke in April.
In the country, there is therefore a political confrontation between the pro-Western camp and the pro-Russian camp. A confrontation with gas promises and rhetoric. Former Prime Minister Kiril Petkov wanted to order liquefied gas from American companies and finish construction of a Greek-Bulgarian gas pipeline that would buy gas from Azerbaijan. In the pro-Russian camp, there is the Socialist Party, yet a coalition partner of Kiril Petkov, but also President Roumen Radev. Finally, there are the nationalist parties which go even further and want Bulgaria to leave NATO.
In Serbia, uncertainty despite the absence of sanctions
The Serbian energy sector is very intertwined with the Russian economy, to the point that the Europeans had agreed to exceptions to the sanctions against Moscow so as not to bring Serbia to a standstill. The Serbian energy sector has been mostly in Russian hands since 2008 and the sale of Yugopetrol to Gazprom. The Russians supply gas and oil to the Serbs, but also own the majority of their refineries, hundreds of petrol pumps and even shares in the gas infrastructure.
However, supply is not completely guaranteed. A major gas contract expired in May. The Serbian president had obtained a three-year renewal from Vladimir Putin. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was due to sign the contract in Belgrade in June, but his plane was banned from flying over Serbia’s neighboring countries. The signature did not take place
In August, the Serbian Minister of the Interior, a notorious pro-Russian, went to Moscow no doubt in connection with these energy issues. Since then, without knowing exactly why, the Serbian president has been calling for energy savings in anticipation of winter, while ensuring that there will be no problem.