“In the end, Vladimir Putin will decide” if gas stocks are filled in France, warns Tuesday August 30 on franceinfo Thierry Bros, professor at Sciences Po Paris and specialist in questions relating to energy. Tuesday morning, Engie announced that the Russian group Gazprom is further reducing its gas deliveries. The French company recalls, for its part, having already put in place measures to be able to supply its customers even in the event of an interruption in flows. Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne called on French companies on Monday to reduce their energy consumption in the face of the risk of a gas shortage this winter in the context of the Ukrainian conflict and the risk of a disruption in Russian gas supplies. “We are indeed facing vital risks”however assures Thierry Bros.
franceinfo: What consequence do you think Gazprom’s reduction in gas delivery will have in France?
Thierry Bros: I think we are in a multi-energy crisis. In addition, you have Vladimir Putin who plays with volumes. The gas stocks, it is Vladimir Putin who will decide if they are filled at 90% or 100% for France or for the European Union. We are indeed facing vital risks. We are in danger of having rationing because we have not made the necessary investments, whether in oil, gas or nuclear power.
Is it possible to avoid rationing?
Gas is part of our energy mix. This is not essential for France, but I remind you that we also have nuclear reactors shut down. So it all comes together. I also remind you that Saudi Arabia has decided on oil at 100 dollars per barrel and that the developed countries are withdrawing strategic oil stocks to try to limit the damage to oil prices. So yes, rationing seems like a pretty serious thing to me to consider. On the other hand, we ourselves have not made any effort on demand since it is said that there will be happy energy sobriety. It does not materialize because we do not want to change our lifestyles.
If all companies follow the government’s request to reduce their energy consumption by 10%, can that help?
It can help. But, to give you an order of magnitude, if we do what the European Union has asked us to do, namely a 15% reduction in gas demand and, if we take into account – and this is very important – the fact that the French reactors are shut down, the demand for primary energy in France must fall by 12%. 12% compared to 10% for businesses is not enough.
Does this mean that we should expect gas or electricity cuts this winter?
For industrialists, I think the Prime Minister was quite frank. For individuals, there will be a risk of power cuts. It will be partial load shedding, for example. But we are going to live in a new world. I think that the big question that the French and their leaders must ask themselves is after what do we do? Are we relaunching investments in energies that we control? We are waiting for the hydrogen messiah who maybe will come, but maybe he won’t.