Since the founding of the Parti Québécois (PQ), each election had placed him face to face with the obligation to run two hares. He had to please both his militants, who were fueled by sovereignty, and the population, who wanted “good government”.
This apparent schizophrenia, in which some saw compromise, even duplicity, was explained rather by what seemed to be obvious: to achieve independence, it was first necessary to seize power.
This time, the PQ has no choice but to assume its raison d’être. Not only is the power out of reach, but beating the bells of the believers back to basics is his only chance of survival. For the rest, the voter will look elsewhere.
At the launch of his campaign on Sunday, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon was the only one of the five party leaders not to address from the outset the misdeeds of inflation, for which voters are certainly expecting a remedy.
The Coalition avenir Québec (CAQ) and the Liberal Party (PLQ) have made a reduction in income tax their first commitment, as Éric Duhaime had already done. Even Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois, who wants to be the alternative to the Legault government, thought it necessary to declare: “QS is the party of the portfolio of Quebecers. »
For the leader of the PQ, the great issue of the election is rather the following: “What future for the French fact, for the Quebec nation? “When asked if the ballot is also decisive for the future of the PQ, he replies:” The electorate will know how to answer us. The question is whether the future of the nation and that of the PQ appear linked in the eyes of voters.
Since 1973, when Robert Bourassa had 102 MNAs elected out of 110, no election has been so devoid of suspense as to who will form the government, even if the 42% of voting intentions for which the CAQ is credited by the last Léger poll would constitute one of the weakest performances for fifty years for a majority government in Quebec.
The division of opposition votes obviously has a lot to do with it, but there is also the fact that those who will not vote for the CAQ remain relatively satisfied with the Legault government, with the notable exception of those hardened disgruntled Conservative voters. They do not see the need to vote strategically by covering their noses, as many did for the benefit of the CAQ in 2018 in order to get rid of the Liberals.
Obviously, many sovereignists are preparing to vote for the CAQ, but the PQ is still the second choice of 29% of CAQ voters, according to Léger. From the moment when the CAQ victory seems assured, should we bury the party that carried the project of a French-speaking country on American soil for more than half a century?
Of course, there is QS. To a journalist who had noted the absence of reference to independence during his campaign launch, Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois replied that he had proposed to make Quebec “one of the greenest countries in the world”, but had indeed had the impression that he had put more emphasis on the green than on the country.
At a time when the cost of living is exploding, one can estimate that the protection of one’s wallet is more urgent than that of the French language, or the environment, without losing interest in it. In either case, the half-measures of the Legault government are clearly insufficient to rectify the situation, and sooner rather than later we will reach the point of no return. Fortunately for the CAQ, supporters of the PQ and those of QS hate each other too much to unite their efforts.
One day or another, inflation will be brought under control, but the decline of French will continue to accelerate, as the data from the last census clearly suggest, as does the trend towards centralization of the Canadian federation. Mr. Legault’s bluster will not change anything.
In the current state of things, the PQ would give a lot to regain the 17% obtained in 2018, which nevertheless constituted a historic low. This would at least allow him to survive until 2026.
Nothing guarantees that, in four years, Quebecers will rise up against “the denial and resignation” that Paul St-Pierre Plamondon criticizes the CAQ, even less that the “winning conditions” of a third referendum will be met, even if the wear and tear of eight years of power will inevitably be felt, with or without François Legault.
In his novel the alchemist, the Brazilian novelist Paulo Coelho wrote: “It is precisely the possibility of realizing a dream that makes life interesting. If it is to disappear, the PQ will at least have tried to preserve the one that Quebecers came within a hair’s breadth of achieving in 1995.