The Coalition avenir Québec (CAQ) begins an election campaign on Sunday during which it will have to maintain the interest of its supporters until the deposit of their ballot papers in the ballot box in order to seize a victory whose only unknown , it seems, remains its magnitude.
The political party has dominated the polls for more than four years. She is seeking a second term by proposing stability, as her campaign slogan, “Let’s Keep Going,” states.
“For us, the danger is that we consider that we have won in advance. It’s dangerous because people can stay at home and tell themselves that we’re going to win the same, “explains a CAQ strategist who agreed to discuss it with The duty on condition that his anonymity be preserved, as he is not an official party spokesperson.
The CAQ does not intend to imitate the strategy of Ontario Premier Doug Ford, re-elected this spring after an election campaign spent far from the media. François Legault’s opponents also began this week to accuse him of hiding – which would not be his plan, according to the strategist. “If we played it ‘cushy’ like Ford, Quebecers would feel it and they wouldn’t like it,” he says. And there, it would be more risky than taking normal risks. »
Political scientist Frédéric Boily still believes that the CAQ would do well to avoid making waves. “The caquistes will make a campaign that does not upset everything, because we do not want to mobilize voters in the opposition,” he believes.
The parties on the starting line
A fragmented opposition
After four years in power, the CAQ is also entering the electoral race against a fragmented opposition. Its main opponent thus varies according to the regions and constituencies, we explain in the pharmacies.
In Montreal, for example, the Caquistes are targeting Liberal ridings like Maurice-Richard and Anjou–Louis-Riel. But their hopes do not stop there. “On the island of Montreal, we lead among Francophones, explains the CAQ strategist. The Liberals and the PQ don’t have many left. The more francophones there are in a riding, the more chances we have of competing with them. »
The CAQ is also eyeing Liberal ridings in Laval, where it won just one seat — Sainte-Rose — in 2018.
In the Quebec region, the main adversary will be the Conservative Party of Quebec (PCQ). The popularity of Éric Duhaime’s party could be felt in the ridings of Chauveau, where he is running, and Beauce-Sud, both currently in the hands of the CAQ.
But the fears aroused by the new leader of the PCQ would fade in the ranks of the caquists: the conservatives do not seem in a position to sufficiently broaden their support, it is estimated. “To beat us in Chauveau, Éric Duhaime will have to do 40%, and there, his vote is 25%, explains the strategist. He will have to mobilize a lot of people. »
The appearance on the scene of Mr. Duhaime, last year, had made the CAQ lose points in public opinion. But the trend has run out of steam lately, notes Mr. Boily, a professor at the University of Alberta. “We have seen in the polls that there has been a certain decline,” he notes.
Rather than the Conservatives, a CAQ MP felt that the surprise could come from the Parti Québécois (PQ). According to this elected official, who preferred that his anonymity be preserved, the very low expectations towards the PQ leader, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, could facilitate a turnaround. “If we do a less good campaign, I think it’s the PQ that will benefit,” he says.
The CAQ nevertheless hopes to get its hands on the PQ ridings in eastern Quebec. All, except Matane-Matapédia, the riding of Pascal Bérubé, are considered a potential gain.
In addition, the ridings of Sherbrooke and Rouyn-Noranda, in the bosom of Québec solidaire since 2018, are also on the radar of the CAQ.
The risks of success
In the CAQ ranks, some believe that the caucus, which currently has 76 deputies, could cross the bar of 80 or 90 seats out of the 125 in the National Assembly the day after October 3.
With such a contingent, the composition of the Council of Ministers could cause disappointment, recognized three elected officials consulted by The duty, but who did not wish to be named. Mr. Legault will then have the delicate task of rewarding the patience of his deputies who have been waiting for an appointment for a while while taking into account the ambitions of recruits like the former PQ minister Bernard Drainville.
“If he kept the same Council and only added three or four new ministers, it would be risky,” warns a deputy.