In Ukraine, will nuclear summer come before winter? According to the assessment of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Russian and Ukrainian forces have indeed exchanged reciprocal accusations of firing dangerous shells on the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant, occupied by the Russians.
Posted at 2:00 p.m.
The new Russian bombardments on August 6 apparently damaged three radiation sensors and injured a worker. It was the second strike to hit the plant in several days. Russia claimed Ukraine was responsible for the shootings.
According to the UK MoD, Russian forces are likely using the plant as a shield, deploying troops and equipment to the site to bomb Ukrainian positions.
To understand the vehemence of the accusations made, it is necessary to know that the specter of a new catastrophe like that of Chernobyl, this time deliberately provoked or unfortunately induced by the stupidity or clumsiness of the armies present, haunts all minds, from man in the street to the president.
Let us remember: the original disaster occurred on April 26, 1986 at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant. An explosion and a monster fire then released large quantities of radioactive particles which contaminated the atmosphere. The huge cloud that followed spread over much of the USSR and Western Europe.
Chernobyl is still today considered one of the two worst nuclear accidents in history (the other being the Fukushima nuclear disaster, which occurred in Japan in 2011).
Let us recall here that three years after its independence, in 1991, Ukraine signed the Budapest memorandum, ceding all its nuclear arsenal to Russia. With this act, Ukraine voluntarily renounced nuclear deterrence – the military doctrine – the foundation of international security between the major nuclear powers since 1945.
In return, Russia recognized Ukraine’s borders following the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Members of the UN Security Council welcomed Ukraine’s decision to renounce nuclear weapons at the time, promising to facilitate the transition of its economy and the construction of its young state. A war between Ukraine and Russia then seemed unthinkable from both Ukrainian and Russian or Western points of view.
On Monday, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres called any attack on nuclear power plants “suicidal” and called for military operations around Zaporizhia to cease so that the International Energy Agency Atomic Energy (IAEA) can access the site.
The head of the IAEA has also described the situation as “completely out of control” and a serious threat to public health and the environment in Ukraine and far beyond its borders.
The boss of the Ukrainian public energy company Energoatom, Petro Kotin, for his part called for the creation of a demilitarized zone around the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant: “We ask the international community and all our partners […] to do what is necessary for the withdrawal of the invaders from the area of the plant and for the creation of a demilitarized zone. »
Built in Soviet times, the Zaporijjia nuclear power plant is the largest in Europe. Its six pressurized water reactors (of which at least two are currently in operation) can produce electricity for 4 million homes.
The reactors are designed to withstand major shocks – they are protected by steel and reinforced concrete. They also have fire protection systems, although a missile strike could prove more problematic.
Buildings housing spent fuel, however, are not constructed with a similar level of protection. Thus, an accidental or intentional leak of spent fuel resulting from the fighting is probably a greater risk than a catastrophic breach in a reactor.
A sign of the political and symbolic importance of the attack: the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, mentioned it in one of his evening speeches with an obvious reference to Chernobyl: “No nation in the world can feel safety when a terrorist state fires on a nuclear power plant. God forbid. If something irreparable happens, no one will stop the wind that will spread the radioactive contamination. Therefore, a principled response by the international community to these Russian attacks on the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant – the largest in Europe – is needed now. »
* The views expressed here are those of the authors alone and do not reflect the official policies or positions of Public Safety Canada or the Canadian government.