Did Ukrainian or pro-Ukrainian agents kill, yesterday in the suburbs of Moscow, the daughter of the fascistic and imperialist Russian ideologue who inspires Putin, Pavel Dougin – who was probably the real target of the attack which destroyed his car ? The investigation in Moscow explores this lead; Russian officials speak of “sponsored murder”… while Ukraine officially denies any link.
Be that as it may, the episode fits well in the current evolution of a conflict which will have already lasted, this Wednesday, August 24, no less than six months. To a “war of fronts” is now added a strategy of guerrilla warfare, targeted actions against the occupier and strikes from a distance against the Russian rear lines.
Since June, the fronts have not moved much. The Russians are barely advancing in Donbass, still partially in Ukrainian hands, even though kyiv has just ordered the evacuation of all unarmed inhabitants of the region, in view of Moscow’s ruthless strategy of targeting civilians to discourage the enemy.
So far, these massacres have had the opposite effect on the determination of Ukrainians, and on the perception of this war abroad.
On the south side, the city of Kherson, which fell fairly easily (and, exceptionally, without massacres of civilians) at the beginning of the war, is currently the subject of an attempt to reconquer it, and reliable maps (such as those, dailies, from the Institute for the Study of War) show very modest Ukrainian progress. But the recovery of lost territories will be difficult.
Two topics have occupied the news since the end of July.
First, the situation around the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant. The compound of the plant is occupied by Russian troops, accused of using it as a “shield”, firing (probably with heavy weapons) from this area – with the idea that any aftershock in its direction would be irresponsible, even criminal.
The specter of Chernobyl therefore adds to the horrors of this war. Last week, we heard a worldwide concert of concerns and warnings: UN, NATO, the IAEA which wants to inspect the premises, two imploring communications from Macron to Putin, calls for a “demilitarization” of the area, accusations mutual relations of the two camps, Russian threats of disconnection, etc.
The danger of a bomb falling squarely on a reactor is perhaps exaggerated: it would take an exceptionally powerful explosive to pierce the shell of these constructions designed to resist a plane crash.
However, the experts speak of another danger, perhaps more serious: that of a lack of maintenance (in particular the essential cooling of the waters of the reactors) following a break in personnel (it is Ukrainians who continue to work there, under the constraint, even the terror, of the Russian military occupation) or a lack of equipment.
Nuclear anguish, declined in two ways – Putin’s bomb… and now the atomic reactor – has therefore never ceased to accompany these 180 days of a “classic” imperialist war, at the gates of Europe.
The other major development of the past two weeks – to which the assassination of Daria Dugin is perhaps added – are the “guerrilla” type actions and the military actions far from the front lines, which Ukraine is now adding to its arsenal.
An airfield and a dozen Russian planes destroyed on the ground on August 9 in Crimea; then on the 16th, still in the Crimea, an arms depot set on fire; on the 19th, again in the peninsula, near Sevastopol, and then in Russia itself, in the northeast of Ukraine, on the other side of the border, more attacks…
There is talk of commando actions, but also, in at least two cases, of long-range strikes targeting the rear Russian supply lines. Perhaps with the new long-range, high-precision American “toys” that the Ukrainians are beginning to use.
Without directly claiming these actions, Zelensky’s government made a point of emphasizing – with these strikes against the supposed “sanctuary” of Crimea – that its objective was always a complete reconquest of the “national territory violated by the occupier”.
The Russians falter, but the Ukrainians, tough, remain far from such a reconquest. This war is not over.
François Brousseau is an international business analyst
at Here Radio-Canada. [email protected]