“We are heading towards a very complicated winter. We are facing the most serious energy crisis that humanity has ever known”, warned Tuesday August 16 on franceinfo Thierry Bros, energy specialist and professor at Sciences Po Paris. Europe is facing an energy crisis due to the war in Ukraine and the risk of a possible shortage of gas, which comes mainly from Russia. Thierry Breton, the European Commissioner for the Internal Market, wanted to be reassuring on Tuesday morning on franceinfo: “With what we have in store, we have enough to spend 54 days of winter”did he declare. “I am much more worried”reacted Thierry Bros.
franceinfo: What do you think of Thierry Breton’s diagnosis?
Thierry Bros: I am much more worried. I don’t look at stocks compared to last year, since last year was a bit of a special year. You have to look at the history of the last five years, and we are behind the storage that we should have.
“The price of gas, at the moment, is the equivalent of four times the price of oil in energy price. Today, at the current price of gas, no gas-intensive industry in Europe can make a profit. This is where we are.”
Thierry Bros, energy specialistat franceinfo
And as for solidarity between states, what I see in the regulations is that 12 out of 27 states are already exempt. So there are only 14 left who could help Germany, but who could also request a derogation. So I think we are heading for a very complicated winter. In fact, we are facing the most serious energy crisis known to humanity.
Do you mean, concretely, that the security of European supply is in danger?
Yes, absolutely! It is in the hands of Vladimir Putin. It has reduced exports to a level that gives us the impression that we are able to fill our storage, but in the middle of August, when everyone is on vacation. In September, some industries, such as glass, steel, automotive or chemicals, will want to restart but may not be able to since, at that time, we will be forced to draw on our stocks .
What do you think of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s proposal for a pipeline that would link Portugal to Central Europe?
This famous pipeline has never been built in ten years [un projet de gazoduc avait été lancé en 2013 entre la Catalogne et le sud-est de la France mais n’a jamais abouti] and has very little chance of being built, because it will be very expensive. The Chancellor makes this proposal because these regasification terminals are going to be late, they were to be commissioned at the end of this year: they will be next year. And so, you see, for the coming winter, it will be very complicated.
What, in your opinion, are the solutions that the Member States of the European Union must take?
I believe that the first thing to do is to return to pragmatism: you have to look where you can find gas. There is gas in Russia, but we want more. There are some in Qatar: Qatar made us proposals, we didn’t want them. There are some in the United States and maybe in Canada, that’s it. Then we have to relaunch a nuclear power program as quickly as possible. This energy crisis is a crisis which will last at least five years, and which will last longer if we do not have pragmatic solutions.