Guest of “8:30 franceinfo”, Tuesday August 16, Thierry Breton wanted to be reassuring. To avoid a possible shortage of gas, which usually comes for a large part from Russia, the European Commissioner for the Internal Market ensures that “we are currently filling all of our tanks”. According to him, “last year, at the same period, we were at 61% filling, this year, we are at 76% [au niveau européen]“.
These good results can be explained on the one hand by a very high level of imports of American liquefied natural gas (LNG), and on the other hand by the fall in consumption, especially that of businesses, currently hampered by prices that have been multiplied by 10.
France, with 86% occupancy, is a very good student, while Germany is right in the middle, with 76%. With these very good quantities, European countries could estimate that they have enough to spend the winter without fear. Thierry Breton even speaks of “50 days of stock“.
The problem is that on a daily basis, these stocks only provide 25 to 30% of European consumption. The rest is delivered in a constant flow by gas pipeline. Which, for countries very dependent on gas from Russia and which do not have the same storage capacities as France, for example, remains problematic.
Norway, a major European supplier, quadrupled its exports. But that won’t be enough. As for American LNG, it is limited by the capacity of European LNG ports. If the winter is harsh or if Moscow – which no longer distributes more than a third of its usual production – completely cuts the valves, there will therefore only be the “energy saving” lever to operate.
With this in mind, the European Union last week adopted a plan to save 15% of our gas consumption. Each state must put in place a national plan by the end of October. And it is the companies that will have to support the effort.
European law protects individuals and certain sectors such as health. The steel, chemical or glass sectors argue that their machines and factories risk never restarting if they are cut… The list of priority companies and sectors, exempt from possible cuts, is a real puzzle to solve. Under price pressure, many plan to reduce their production: a third of German companies, for example.
Bad news for the economy, which risks plunging into recession. For winter 2023-2024, there is no guarantee that it will not be more difficult to restock. The European Commission is already considering renewing its energy savings plan.