Lula the ghost, Lula the indestructible. Lula and his unique story. Five years ago, he was still in prison for corruption. Justice has since cleared him. And today, he is well ahead of the outgoing populist president, Jair Bolsonaro: between 12 and 18% ahead.
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has a recipe for winning. At 76, he has been through it all: success, downfall, the death of two wives, a son, poverty, struggle, and the experience that is worth gold. Exactly 20 years ago, he became president for the first time. Left-wing metalworker, founder of the Workers’ Party, nicknamed the “father of the poor”he then allied himself with a militant businessman of the liberal party, “At the time, this choice sent a message to the business community and to conservatives that Lula wants to try to moderate himself and wants to make a conciliatory policy“, explains Gaspard Estrada, specialist in Latin America at Sciences-Po. It is a success.
20 years later, faced with the excess of Bolsonaro which threatens democracy and casts doubt on the Brazilian electoral system, he uses the same recipe: he appoints a center-right running mate, Geraldo Alckmin. “Close to the business community and agribusiness – these large industrial groups that support Bolsonaro -“ Geraldo Alckmin was Lula’s opponent in 2006, recalls Gaspard Estrada. The former president is also supported by “10 political parties ranging from the extreme left to the center-right”. The message is clear: Lula will be the candidate of reason, openness and above all, the defense of democracy, which has been undermined for four years.
“Lula is clearly the favourite”explains Gaspard Estrada, “But Bolsonaro’s last-minute launch of electorally-targeted social policies will have an impact. The question is which one?”, minimizes the specialist. What’s also important is Bolsonaro’s rejection rate, “Today more than 50% of Brazilians reject Bolsonaro’s government action.”
To win, Lula can count on this lack of love, but also on his own aura. He’s already been president for two terms, so voters know who they’re going to vote for. Lula plays on the golden years he lived in the presidency, when the country had a growth rate of 7.5%, boosted by the boom in raw materials. “What he says in substance”, Gaspard Estrada analysis“it’s: I managed to straighten the country once, can I do it again?”
What about his program? Here too, the hero of the Brazilian left plays with the good memories of the past. “Between 2003 and 2010, it maintained a very social course, with a policy to fight against hunger in particular”, notes Gaspard Estrada. During his tenure, 30 million Brazilians were lifted out of poverty and when he left power, he had an 87% popularity rate.
Lula promises today to preserve the environment, especially the Amazon. Since his adversary is in power, this forest essential to the planet dies. “Official figures also show that since President Bolsonaro came to power”note The world, “average annual deforestation in the Amazon has increased by 75% compared to the previous decade”. Lula wants to achieve 0% deforestation.
He also wants a revival of social policy and to give a more positive image of Brazil on the international scene. According to the polls, he has a chance of winning “but he still has to give details on his economic policy”tempers Gaspard Estrada. “Lula looks a little too much at the past and its good years and should start planning more for the future.”