(London) Oil prices fluctuated between gains and losses on Friday, torn between better-than-expected global demand forecasts and a market that should be well supplied in the coming months.
Posted at 7:25 a.m.
Around 5:50 am, a barrel of Brent from the North Sea for delivery in October took 0.66% to 100.26 dollars, going back above the symbolic bar of 100 dollars a barrel.
The barrel of American West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for delivery in September gained 0.34%, to 94.65 dollars.
Thursday’s upward revision of global oil demand by the International Energy Agency (IEA) has given further upward momentum to crude oil prices.
At the same time, the IEA also raised its forecast for world oil supply, which should increase by another 1 million barrels per day by the end of the year.
“The market will be amply supplied in the coming months,” according to Commerzbank, whose analysts expect prices to fall through the end of the year.
Disruptions in Russian oil deliveries this week, however, served as a reminder of the fragility of supplies from Moscow and the dependence of some European nations.
The supply of Russian crude to Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic via Ukraine had been halted after a bank transaction linked to sanctions targeting Moscow was refused. Deliveries resumed on Wednesday in Slovakia.
“However, as no permanent solution has been found, the problem threatens to resurface in the future,” Commerzbank analysts note.
“Given the prolonged invasion of Ukraine, the impending European Union sanctions on Russian oil sales and the weaponization of natural gas exports, it seems premature to bet on a continued decline in oil prices. energy,” says Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Energy.
Especially since Russia’s war against Ukraine has certainly “created a shortage of supplies”, but at the same time, “like any war, it constitutes a brake on regional and global economic growth”, continues the analyst. Fears that continue to weigh on demand for crude.